Santa Rita Plan · Tempe, AZ 85282

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Meadows Arizona, a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1000 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in Tempe, AZ. This property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan with vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. The island kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features a private bath and walk-

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Covered front porch
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $144,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-level plan (Santa Rita)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,040
• Exterior features: Located at 2401 W Southern Ave, Tempe, AZ 85282

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan home (Santa Rita plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $144,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $50,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.5% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $352 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.00%
• DSCR: 5.32
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2401 W Southern Ave #106	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,020 (-2%)	3mo	$74,000	$73	94
2401 W Southern Ave #110	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,005 (-3%)	9mo	$14,500	$14	78
2401 W Southern Ave #204	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	9mo	$69,900	$62	76
2401 W Southern Ave #211	0.18mi	2/2.0	966 (-7%)	5mo	$35,000	$36	75
2609 W Southern Ave #258	0.28mi	2/2.0	966 (-7%)	7mo	$32,500	$34	69
2609 W Southern Ave #38	0.28mi	2/2.0	980 (-6%)	10mo	$25,000	$26	69
2609 W Southern Ave #227	0.29mi	2/1.5	980 (-6%)	7mo	$27,100	$28	69
2609 W Southern Ave #333	0.28mi	2/2.0	980 (-6%)	12mo	$35,000	$36	67
2609 W Southern Ave #441	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	66
2609 W Southern Ave #108	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	2mo	$55,000	$49	65
2609 W Southern Ave #379	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+14%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	63
2609 W Southern Ave #117	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	9mo	$125,000	$109	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $59,648
• Equity at exit: $7,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.77×
• Total profit: $125,066
• Equity at exit: $4,406

Cash invested: $14,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$267
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $50,960

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,740
• Closing costs: $1,529
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2348 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	16d	1	0.26mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2357 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,199	$1.52	17d	1	0.27mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2365 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.60	1d	1	0.27mi
2349 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,030	$1.45	1d	1	0.27mi
4365 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	1d	1	0.28mi
4389 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,150	$1.54	1d	1	0.30mi
1812 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,075	$1.81	1d	1	0.35mi
1818 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1148	$2,150	$1.87	10d	1	0.36mi
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	1d	1	0.42mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	10d	1	0.48mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	14d	1	0.48mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	0.48mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	1d	1	0.50mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,808	$2.05	1d	26	0.51mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	1d	1	0.51mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	3d	1	0.51mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	1d	1	0.56mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	1d	3	0.59mi
2150 W Alameda Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.5	1155	$1,899	$1.64	22d	1	0.79mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	14d	1	0.89mi
4520 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,437	$1.90	1d	24	0.93mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	1d	12	0.95mi
4328 E Saint Catherine Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	1d	1	0.98mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	1d	1	1.03mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,928	$2.05	1d	15	1.04mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,901	$2.00	10d	19	1.04mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	1d	54	1.04mi
4312 E Burgess Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,675	$1.63	1d	1	1.06mi
7027 S 43rd Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,200	$1.83	24d	1	1.06mi
951 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,500	$2.53	1d	1	1.13mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	1d	1	1.15mi
2155 S 55th St Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,952	$1.83	1d	13	1.15mi
1311 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$1,519	$2.19	1d	25	1.17mi
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,799	$2.14	1d	19	1.19mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,576	$1.46	1d	21	1.21mi
1210 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0	910	$2,100	$2.31	1d	1	1.22mi
1222 W Auburn Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,200	$2.05	10d	1	1.23mi
4163 E Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,999	$1.69	14d	1	1.24mi
1145 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,425	$1.73	1d	10	1.24mi
633 W Southern Ave #1147 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	10d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,855
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$1,482
• Taxable income: $13,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,325
• After-tax cash flow: $10,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 55+ age-qualified home in Tempe, AZ, is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New appliances in kitchen — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New appliances in kitchen — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B