222 Beaver Dam Rd · Waverly, VA 23890

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1975 0.51 ac lot $100/sqft · 33% below area Est $186k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special being sold As-Is Where-Is! Quiet rancher sitting on a half an acre prime to be renovated nestled between the reenergized Petersburg and Suffolk. Wonderful opportunity to owner occupy with custom touches or utilize as a rental unit out in the country.

Key facts

• Custom touches
• Rental unit
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• RENTAL UNIT
• CUSTOM TOUCHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached garage (unfinished); Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Approximate year built
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower; 1 half bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Gas masonry fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#305 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sussex County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #111 of 131 in VA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,557 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,753
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -32.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Beaver Dam Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	15mo	$258,000	$206	74
211 Belvidere St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	16mo	$219,900	$183	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,425
• Equity at exit: $52,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $62,521
• Equity at exit: $79,225

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23890

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $152	+0% $117	+5% $81	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $73	+0% $117	+5% $161	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $149	base $117	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 267-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   status Active 267-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 267-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $125,000 Active 267-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sussex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103780
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -46.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4198
• State rank: #111 of 131 in VA

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #10923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,600

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,207 people
• By 2030: 10,897 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,451 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 9,936 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 8,643 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 6,908 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 36% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 23.8pp · 2024: 4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.4 2020: D+11.9 2016: D+16.3 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Current HPI: 180.2394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.