31734 Splash Isle · Pasadena Hills, FL 33576

$273,890

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Townhouse · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $283k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This comfortable single-story home includes a versatile flex room and an open floorplan with a well-equipped kitchen, and shared dining and family room down the hall. The attached patio offers indoor-outdoor living experiences, while the nearby owner's suite is a private oasis with an en-suite bathroom. Plus, this home includes a convenient storage space for a golf cart or other recreational vehicles.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Flex room
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $273,890

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family property (Dayspring II plan); Spec inventory
• Exterior features: Living area of 1616; Address: 31734 Splash Isle, San Antonio, FL 33576

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home, Dayspring II plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 366 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $221,253 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10670 Ironwood Tree Way	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,639 (+1%)	3mo	$252,900	$154	69
10663 Ironwood Tree Way	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,639 (+1%)	4mo	$276,900	$169	69
10646 Ironwood Tree Way	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (+3%)	2mo	$264,900	$159	66
10653 Ironwood Tree Way	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,684 (+4%)	6mo	$276,050	$164	63
10647 Ironwood Tree Way	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,684 (+4%)	6mo	$304,200	$181	63
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (-1%)	3mo	$279,990	$175	61
32122 Eastern Redbud Br	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+5%)	6mo	$264,900	$156	60
32128 Eastern Redbud Br	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+5%)	6mo	$289,900	$171	60
31536 Azure Beach Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+11%)	1mo	$427,693	$239	56
31530 Azure Beach Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+11%)	1mo	$426,602	$239	56
11122 Tidepool Ct	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+11%)	5mo	$419,990	$235	52
11132 Tidepool Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+11%)	6mo	$429,000	$240	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,407
• Equity at exit: $49,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-71,812
• Equity at exit: $38,326

Cash invested: $76,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,108/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $252,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-50	+0% $-145	+5% $-240	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-232	+0% $-145	+5% $-57	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-75	base $-145	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,472
• Closing costs: $8,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	3d	1	0.32mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	26d	1	0.32mi
31493 Cannon Rush Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	4d	1	0.34mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	16d	1	0.37mi
10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1747	$2,200	$1.26	16d	1	0.38mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	26d	1	0.38mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	6d	1	0.39mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	26d	1	0.40mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	19d	1	0.40mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	21d	1	0.42mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	23d	1	0.42mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	26d	1	0.43mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	26d	1	0.44mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.45mi
10797 Penny Gale Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,300	$1.17	25d	1	0.47mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.50mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.55mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	21d	1	0.57mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	26d	1	0.59mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	26d	1	0.60mi
10356 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,890	$1.13	0d	1	0.63mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	26d	1	0.63mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	19d	1	0.63mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.67mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	0.68mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	19d	1	0.69mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	26d	1	0.70mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	14d	1	0.71mi
31856 Cardinal Yard Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	26d	1	0.72mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	1d	1	0.75mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	26d	1	0.77mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	0.78mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.80mi
10110 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	26d	1	0.80mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,972	$1.67	1d	21	0.86mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	5d	1	0.88mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	22d	1	0.88mi
31921 Conchshell Sail St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1793	$2,599	$1.45	1d	6	0.89mi
11322 Cay Spruce Way Unit n/a Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,420	$1.21	26d	1	0.92mi
11357 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$2,100	$1.30	19d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,890 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,890 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,890 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,890 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 404-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $273,890 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,342
• − Property taxes: −$4,108
• − Insurance: −$1,369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$7,968
• Taxable loss: −$6,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,556
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B