247 Big Sioux Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$334,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,851 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2025 9,427 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Take advantage of an incredible builder promotion featuring low down payment options and builder paid closing costs, rate promotions, with a low 4.25% available making homeownership more accessible than ever. Inside you'll find premium upgrades throughout, from high end finishes and designer details to an open concept layout built for both everyday living and entertaining. Why wait to build when you can move right in? This quick move in home gives you the best of both worlds brand new construction without the wait plus incentive that make it an opportunity you don't want to miss. Discover the perfect blend of comfort, style, and affordability with the Escambia floor plan by LGI Homes. This

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Granite countertops
• Chef ready kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $100 (total annual $1,200)
• HOA & community: Association of Poinciana Villages (monthly HOA $100); HOA includes cable TV, pool, internet and recreational facilities; Community amenities: pool, fitness center, playground, park, dog park, tennis courts, basketball court, trails; deed and special community restrictions apply; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Fiber optics; Phone available; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; One-story; Northwest facing; R-1A zoning; Completed condition; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built by LGI Homes Florida - LLC (model: Escambia); Builder permit BR-2024-6191
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear patio and porch; Patio; Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler meter; In-ground pool; Irrigation equipment; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning; Attic fan; Exhaust fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Pest guard system; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane ENERGY STAR windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $335k implies a 415% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,623 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-58,276
• Equity at exit: $73,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-75,106
• Equity at exit: $70,560

Cash invested: $93,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $968/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,628

Max offer price $274,589

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,725
• Closing costs: $10,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	23d	1	0.10mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	3d	1	0.18mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	23d	1	0.18mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	19d	1	0.21mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	0.26mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.28mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	0.29mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	12d	1	0.30mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	23d	1	0.33mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	0.36mi
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	23d	1	0.40mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	23d	1	0.41mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	23d	1	0.50mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.52mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	14d	1	0.54mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.55mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	23d	1	0.59mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	3d	10	0.59mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.60mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.61mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.61mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	0.69mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.72mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	23d	1	0.77mi
1174 N Platte Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2308	$2,400	$1.04	14d	1	0.78mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.79mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	0.81mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	0.83mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	10d	1	0.86mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	0.87mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	23d	1	0.92mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	0.93mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	0.95mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	23d	1	0.95mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	0.96mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	3d	1	1.00mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	3d	1	1.00mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	23d	1	1.03mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	1.05mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	23d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $334,900 Active
16. 2026-04-24
    historical
17. 2026-03-08
    price $334,900
18. 2026-02-23
    status Active
19. 2026-01-30
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-30
    listed $350,900 Active
21. 2025-12-12
    historical
22. 2025-10-27
    status Active
23. 2025-10-20
    status Pending
24. 2025-10-09
    price $346,900
25. 2025-10-03
    status Active
26. 2025-09-11
    status Pending
27. 2025-07-25
    status Active
28. 2025-07-21
    status Pending
29. 2025-07-03
    price $358,900
30. 2025-06-13
    listed $354,900 Active
31. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $65,000
32. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed
33. 2024-02-20
    status Pending
34. 2024-02-02
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $968 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,780 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,812/yr (+$151/mo · 187.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,760
• − Property taxes: −$968
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,743
• Taxable loss: −$10,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+385.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $350,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $346,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $358,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $968 · +181.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.