911 N Kelly Ave · Odessa, TX 79763

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · Townhouse public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1979 2,962 sqft lot $101/sqft · 13% above area Est $97k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2,962 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.22%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,613
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 12.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,076
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $19,048
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79763

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,521/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 N Kelly Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1170	$2,000	$1.71	21d	1	0.14mi
401 Lasseter Ave Odessa, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	21d	1	0.40mi
200 Santa Rita Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,400	$1.67	43d	1	0.59mi
1101 W 19th St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	43d	1	0.77mi
1318 Harless Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	0.81mi
1322 Harless Ave Unit 1 Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.81mi
2439 W 15th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.85mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	43d	1	0.92mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,100	$1.72	21d	1	0.92mi
1604 N Sam Houston Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$2,000	$1.75	43d	1	0.94mi
2 Star Cir Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	13d	1	1.06mi
1501 N Texas Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	13d	1	1.12mi
1315 N Jackson Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	13d	1	1.16mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	1.48mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	21d	1	1.49mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$39/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,521
• − Insurance: −$5,664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $1,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$369
• After-tax cash flow: $2,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,174
• Household income: $56,877
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 842.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 24% White 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.81%
• Current HPI: 254.9773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $109,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,521 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.