15819 East Dr · Lake Dalecarlia, IN 46356

$147,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1971 0.30 ac lot Est $207k · 29% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint, Remodeled inside and out, 3 Bedroom, Basement, Garage and Wooded Lake View. Newer Roof, Siding, Windows, Kitchen Doors and Flooring & Bath. Large Eat-In Kitchen. All Appliances including washer and dryer remain. Newer C/A and water heater. Association allows boat slip for owner. Beautiful lot. Home warranty included. Low, Low taxes.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Prairie Elementary School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #128 of 994 statewide, top 15%, 416 students, 26% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 14769900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $147,700

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,252
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Burr Oak Ter	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-2%)	14mo	$260,000	$258	75
5518 W Main St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-1%)	24mo	$143,000	$140	61
540 S Lakeview Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	19mo	$125,000	$125	59
505 Lakeview Ct	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	13mo	$285,000	$285	58
5206 W Main St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,166 (+14%)	18mo	$235,000	$202	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,507
• Equity at exit: $22,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $25,397
• Equity at exit: $12,770

Cash invested: $41,356 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$775
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $147,700

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $378	+0% $336	+5% $295	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $271	+0% $336	+5% $402	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $374	base $336	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,925
• Closing costs: $4,431
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $147,700
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $1 Active
4. 2016-06-27
   soldstatus $140,000 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Quaint, Remodeled inside and out, 3 Bedroom, Basement, Garage and Wooded Lake View. Newer Roof, Siding, Windows, Kitchen Doors and Flooring & Bath. Large Eat-In Kitchen. All Appliances including washer and dryer remain. Newer C/A and water heater. Association allows boat slip for owner. Beautiful lot. Home warranty included. Low, Low taxes.

5. 2016-04-28
   listed $139,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Quaint, Remodeled inside and out, 3 Bedroom, Basement, Garage and Wooded Lake View. Newer Roof, Siding, Windows, Kitchen Doors and Flooring & Bath. Large Eat-In Kitchen. All Appliances including washer and dryer remain. Newer C/A and water heater. Association allows boat slip for owner. Beautiful lot. Home warranty included. Low, Low taxes.

6. 2013-07-23
   historical
7. 2012-11-05
   listed $155,000
8. 2008-05-30
   listed $154,500
9. 2007-02-19
   listed $74,900
10. 2006-11-05
    historical
11. 2006-05-04
    listed $133,000
12. 2005-09-08
    historical
13. 2004-09-07
    listed $144,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,273
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,297
• Taxable income: $1,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $3,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lake Dalecarlia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #7821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Dalecarlia, IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $147,700 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $1 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-28 Listed $139,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-23 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-05 Listed $155,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-30 Listed $154,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-19 Listed $74,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-05 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-04 Listed $133,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-08 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-07 Listed $144,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,493 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.