The Belmont G Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$538,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 461 Days on market

$13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Belmont, a thoughtfully designed open-concept home that blends modern convenience with versatile living spaces. As you enter, you are greeted by a foyer that flows seamlessly into the heart of the home. The open concept layout features a generously sized family room and kitchen, ideal for gatherings or entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, offering a private retreat complete with a luxurious bathroom and a walk-in closet. On the second floor, you'll find a versatile loft area, along with two additional bedrooms providing ample room for family or guests. The shared bathroom enhances functionality. Make it your own with The Belmont's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 461 days

🏗️ New construction. The $538,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $712,082.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $538k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($28/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $538k).
• Recommended offer: $473k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $473,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $712,082
• List price: $538,000
• Delta: -24.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
534 Englewood	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+0%)	6mo	$669,990	$188	78
210 Landon Path	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,747 (+5%)	2mo	$794,800	$212	76
287 Poe Pkwy	0.50mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+0%)	7mo	$669,990	$188	70
250 Matthew Path	0.44mi	4/3.5	3,325 (-7%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	67
264 Storm Way	0.68mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+0%)	1mo	$695,990	$195	67
183 Poe Pkwy	0.39mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,716 (+4%)	4mo	$639,990	$172	66
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	3,324 (-7%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	60
235 Poe	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,101 (-13%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	53
222 Raven Rd	0.61mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,885 (+9%)	2mo	$912,151	$235	46
267 Sweet Rose	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,094 (-13%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	45
247 Storm Way	0.66mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,800 (+7%)	8mo	$779,800	$205	39
229 Raven Rd	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (-14%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-115,139
• Equity at exit: $106,174

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-99,656
• Equity at exit: $61,568

Cash invested: $199,383 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$890 /mo · $10,681/yr
• Insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,312
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,246

Max offer price $712,082

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $248	+0% $2	+5% $-244	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-491	-5% $-245	+0% $2	+5% $249	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $183	base $2	+0.5pp $-182	+1.0pp $-370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,020
• Closing costs: $21,362
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	5d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	44d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	45d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	5d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $538,000 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $538,000 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $538,000 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $538,000 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $538,000 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $538,000 Active 452 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $538,000 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $538,000 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $538,000 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $538,000 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $538,000 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $538,000 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $538,000 Active 443 DOM
15. 2025-03-29
    price $538,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Welcome to The Belmont, a thoughtfully designed open-concept home that blends modern convenience with versatile living spaces. As you enter, you are greeted by a foyer that flows seamlessly into the heart of the home. The open concept layout features a generously sized family room and kitchen, ideal for gatherings or entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, offering a private retreat complete with a luxurious bathroom and a walk-in closet. On the second floor, you'll find a versatile loft area, along with two additional bedrooms providing ample room for family or guests. The shared bathroom enhances functionality. Make it your own with The Belmont's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

16. 2025-03-21
    price $536,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Welcome to The Belmont, a thoughtfully designed open-concept home that blends modern convenience with versatile living spaces. As you enter, you are greeted by a foyer that flows seamlessly into the heart of the home. The open concept layout features a generously sized family room and kitchen, ideal for gatherings or entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, offering a private retreat complete with a luxurious bathroom and a walk-in closet. On the second floor, you'll find a versatile loft area, along with two additional bedrooms providing ample room for family or guests. The shared bathroom enhances functionality. Make it your own with The Belmont's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

17. 2025-03-14
    listed $534,000 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Welcome to The Belmont, a thoughtfully designed open-concept home that blends modern convenience with versatile living spaces. As you enter, you are greeted by a foyer that flows seamlessly into the heart of the home. The open concept layout features a generously sized family room and kitchen, ideal for gatherings or entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, offering a private retreat complete with a luxurious bathroom and a walk-in closet. On the second floor, you'll find a versatile loft area, along with two additional bedrooms providing ample room for family or guests. The shared bathroom enhances functionality. Make it your own with The Belmont's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,888
• − Property taxes: −$10,681
• − Insurance: −$3,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,999
• − Management: −$5,999
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$20,715
• Taxable loss: −$12,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,884
• After-tax cash flow: $2,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $538,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $536,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-14 Listed $534,000 Zillow