10638 Bay Hills Cir · Thonotosassa, FL 33592

$112,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1990 4,508 sqft lot $162/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tired of paying lot rent? Introducing well-located home in Bay Hills Village in Thonotosassa featuring a split floor plan with two bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom for added comfort and privacy. A metal roof provides durability, while the large backyard deck offers great space for outdoor enjoyment, and NO lot rent! Conveniently located near I-4 with easy access to Tampa, Brandon, and Plant City. Nearby schools include Thonotosassa Elementary School, Burnett Middle School, and Armwood High School. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Hillsborough River State Park and shopping and dining at Brandon Town Center. This property is ready for you to make it your own.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Split floor plan
• Large backyard deck

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE BACKYARD DECK
• EASY ACCESS TO TAMPA
• NEARBY SCHOOLS
• HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $113k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#673 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $780 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $113k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,032 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $284
• Equity at exit: $16,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $24,381
• Equity at exit: $9,753

Cash invested: $31,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33592

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$592
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$162
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $112,800

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,200
• Closing costs: $3,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11512 Grovewood Ave Thonotosassa, FL	1.0	1.0	988	$900	$0.91	17d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $162 · $1,944/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,800 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,800 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,800 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,800 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,800 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,800 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,800 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,800 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,800 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $112,800 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,800 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,800 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,800 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,800 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Tired of paying lot rent? Introducing well-located home in Bay Hills Village in Thonotosassa featuring a split floor plan with two bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom for added comfort and privacy. A metal roof provides durability, while the large backyard deck offers great space for outdoor enjoyment, and NO lot rent! Conveniently located near I-4 with easy access to Tampa, Brandon, and Plant City. Nearby schools include Thonotosassa Elementary School, Burnett Middle School, and Armwood High School. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Hillsborough River State Park and shopping and dining at Brandon Town Center. This property is ready for you to make it your own.

16. 2026-04-25
    status Pending 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Tired of paying lot rent? Introducing well-located home in Bay Hills Village in Thonotosassa featuring a split floor plan with two bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom for added comfort and privacy. A metal roof provides durability, while the large backyard deck offers great space for outdoor enjoyment, and NO lot rent! Conveniently located near I-4 with easy access to Tampa, Brandon, and Plant City. Nearby schools include Thonotosassa Elementary School, Burnett Middle School, and Armwood High School. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Hillsborough River State Park and shopping and dining at Brandon Town Center. This property is ready for you to make it your own.

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $112,800 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Tired of paying lot rent? Introducing well-located home in Bay Hills Village in Thonotosassa featuring a split floor plan with two bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom for added comfort and privacy. A metal roof provides durability, while the large backyard deck offers great space for outdoor enjoyment, and NO lot rent! Conveniently located near I-4 with easy access to Tampa, Brandon, and Plant City. Nearby schools include Thonotosassa Elementary School, Burnett Middle School, and Armwood High School. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Hillsborough River State Park and shopping and dining at Brandon Town Center. This property is ready for you to make it your own.

18. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $65,500 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Great buy on a 2 bedroom 2 bath Doublewide on a lovely well landscaped lot. Beautifully maintained inside and out. Newer A/C, vinyl siding. Move in ready!

19. 2005-07-05
    listed $63,500 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Great buy on a 2 bedroom 2 bath Doublewide on a lovely well landscaped lot. Beautifully maintained inside and out. Newer A/C, vinyl siding. Move in ready!

20. 2005-03-10
    soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,319
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − HOA: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$3,281
• Taxable income: $1,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $3,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Thonotosassa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #13914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thonotosassa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 12,333
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,333
• Household income: $68,802
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 306.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.90%
• Current HPI: 364.3745
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $112,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-01 Sold (MLS) $65,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-05 Listed $63,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.