954 Old Belfast Rd · Lewisburg, TN 37091

$229,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1997 0.57 ac lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $235k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location! Lots of room! Great for a large family! Very well kept! All 4 bedrooms offer walk in closets. 3 full baths. Master has separate garden tub and shower with new flooring. Covered porches. Nice spacious lot with mature trees in the back. Lots of parking. Come build a shop! Close to schools & shopping. Call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Lots of parking
• Walk in closets

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSETS
• GARDEN TUB
• COVERED PORCHES
• MATURE TREES
• LOTS OF PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.6% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.20%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -2.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $34,948
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $122,943
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37091

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $1,133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 E Hill Ave Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.0	1800	$5,000	$2.78	44d	1	1.04mi
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	24d	1	1.41mi
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-05-11
   price $229,000 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great location! Lots of room! Great for a large family! Very well kept! All 4 bedrooms offer walk in closets. 3 full baths. Master has separate garden tub and shower with new flooring. Covered porches. Nice spacious lot with mature trees in the back. Lots of parking. Come build a shop! Close to schools & shopping. Call today for a showing!

6. 2026-03-17
   listed $239,000 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great location! Lots of room! Great for a large family! Very well kept! All 4 bedrooms offer walk in closets. 3 full baths. Master has separate garden tub and shower with new flooring. Covered porches. Nice spacious lot with mature trees in the back. Lots of parking. Come build a shop! Close to schools & shopping. Call today for a showing!

7. 2023-09-28
   historical
8. 2023-09-01
   listed $275,000 Active
9. 2022-03-06
   historical
10. 2022-01-24
    price $225,000
11. 2021-12-03
    price $239,900
12. 2021-10-25
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,027/yr (+$86/mo · 171.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,013
• − Management: −$3,013
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $10,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $11,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 23,991

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 350.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $229,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $239,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-28 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-01 Listed $275,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-06 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-24 Price Changed $225,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-03 Price Changed $239,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $250,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $599 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.