406 N Union St · Yates City, IL 61572

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $129k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the North edge of Yates city. All bedrooms are good size with large closets. Living room and all 3 bedrooms have beautiful, original hard wood floors. Nice size kitchen and big main floor laundry area. Water heater new 2015 and roof will be replaced with transferable warranty to the new owner. Attached 2 car garage with workbench. Come look today!!

Key facts

• Built 1960
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-968/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#949 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Farmington Central CUSD 265 (rural): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #293 of 620 in IL (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Farmington Central Elem Sch (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #922 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 622 students, 0% FRL); Farmington Central Jr High Sch (math 24% / reading 36%, grade F, #246 of 665 statewide, top 38%, 262 students, 0% FRL); Farmington Central High Sch (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 375 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $140k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,065 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,408
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 E Ames St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,304 (-3%)	2mo	$136,000	$104	82
404 S Kellogg St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$123,500	$95	64
496 Knox Hwy 18	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+9%)	21mo	$173,500	$118	62
210 N Kent St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	8mo	$113,000	$96	53
106 W Bishop St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-12%)	11mo	$110,000	$93	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $50,850
• Equity at exit: $104,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $151,422
• Equity at exit: $205,710

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61572

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,840/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $125,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-41	+0% $-81	+5% $-120	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-128	+0% $-81	+5% $-33	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-45	base $-81	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $140,000 Active
18. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus $82,000
19. 2017-04-13
    soldstatus $82,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the North edge of Yates city. All bedrooms are good size with large closets. Living room and all 3 bedrooms have beautiful, original hard wood floors. Nice size kitchen and big main floor laundry area. Water heater new 2015 and roof will be replaced with transferable warranty to the new owner. Attached 2 car garage with workbench. Come look today!!

20. 2017-01-31
    listed $90,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the North edge of Yates city. All bedrooms are good size with large closets. Living room and all 3 bedrooms have beautiful, original hard wood floors. Nice size kitchen and big main floor laundry area. Water heater new 2015 and roof will be replaced with transferable warranty to the new owner. Attached 2 car garage with workbench. Come look today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,840 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,840
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $-163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Central CUSD 265
• NCES district ID: 1700044
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,785
• Composite: 23.33/100
• National rank: #7914
• State rank: #293 of 620 in IL

Livability — Yates City

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #949
• US rank: #18574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yates City, IL
• Population (ZIP): 916

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,224 people
• By 2030: 46,333 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 42,424 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 38,929 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 31,523 · -34.6%
• By 2100: 24,092 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.4% · R 53.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+3.3 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 157.2979
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-13 Sold (MLS) $82,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-31 Listed $90,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,840 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.