228 Elmwood Rd · Hoyt Lakes, MN 55750

$147,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1956 8,470 sqft lot $171/sqft · 111% above area Est $133k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 3 bedroom 1 bath home nestled on a corner lot complete with a back deck and detached heated/insulated 24x28 garage. The main level features an updated eat in kitchen and living room with a sliding glass door heading to the back deck. Down the hall are 3 bedrooms and a full, updated bathroom. The lower level has a finished rec room, laundry room, and a new workout room. Main level living room is currently used as a dining room.

Key facts

• Finished rec room
• New workout room
• Back deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACK DECK
• DETACHED HEATED GARAGE
• UPDATED EAT IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED REC ROOM
• NEW WORKOUT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#270 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mesabi East School District (rural): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in MN (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesabi East Elementary (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #600 of 857 statewide, top 70%, 474 students, 51% FRL); Mesabi East Secondary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #354 of 471 statewide, top 77%, 415 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $148k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,505 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,958
• List price: $147,500
• Delta: 10.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Leeds Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$93,000	$108	80
202 Dorchester Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	950 (+10%)	23mo	$80,000	$84	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-23,161
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,356
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55750

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $54	+0% $12	+5% $-29	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-34	+0% $12	+5% $58	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $50	base $12	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $147,500 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $147,500 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-04-12
   listed $147,500 Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom 1 bath home nestled on a corner lot complete with a back deck and detached heated/insulated 24x28 garage. The main level features an updated eat in kitchen and living room with a sliding glass door heading to the back deck. Down the hall are 3 bedrooms and a full, updated bathroom. The lower level has a finished rec room, laundry room, and a new workout room. Main level living room is currently used as a dining room.

4. 2025-09-19
   price $144,000
5. 2019-08-02
   soldstatus $74,500
6. 2019-07-31
   soldstatus $74,500
7. 2019-06-22
   listed $78,500
8. 2018-02-28
   soldstatus $64,000
9. 2018-02-26
   soldstatus $64,000
10. 2017-05-23
    listed $68,900
11. 2014-05-19
    soldstatus $64,900
12. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $64,900
13. 2014-03-14
    listed $64,900
14. 2010-06-09
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesabi East School District
• NCES district ID: 2791450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,546
• Composite: 31.69/100
• National rank: #5922
• State rank: #240 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hoyt Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hoyt Lakes, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,078

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 19% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.12%
• Current HPI: 171.9924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+195.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $147,500 RAOR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $144,000 RAOR
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $74,500 RAOR
• 2019-06-22 Listed $78,500 RAOR
• 2018-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-26 Sold (MLS) $64,000 RAOR
• 2017-05-23 Listed $68,900 RAOR
• 2014-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2014-04-30 Sold (MLS) $64,900 RAOR
• 2014-03-14 Listed $64,900 RAOR
• 2010-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.