5301 E Commerce Way #8103 · Sacramento, CA 95835

$395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Condo public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2007 $220/sqft · 9% below area Est $432k · 9% under $515/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully appointed 3-bedroom, 3 full-bath condo offering 1,792 sq ft of comfortable living space, built in 2007 and located in the sought-after Artisan Square community in Natomas. This well-designed home features an open and functional floor plan that creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. The kitchen is equipped with a center island with sink, rich dark cabinetry, seamlessly flowing into the spacious living and dining areas perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy convenient indoor laundry, a private patio, and an attached 2-car garage. The first floor includes a bedroom and a full bathroom, ideal for guests, in-laws, or a home office. Upsta

Key facts

• Rich dark cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Private patio

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND WITH SINK
• RICH DARK CABINETRY
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-965 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (43.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,495 (43.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,735
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -8.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $127,533
• Equity at exit: $332,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $411,083
• Equity at exit: $693,876

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,652/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$515
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,237

Max offer price $224,495

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-742	-5% $-853	+0% $-965	+5% $-1,077	+10% $-1,189
Rent	-10% $-1,203	-5% $-1,084	+0% $-965	+5% $-846	+10% $-727
Rate	-1.0pp $-766	-0.5pp $-865	base $-965	+0.5pp $-1,068	+1.0pp $-1,172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.06mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.10mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	0.10mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	0.18mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.26mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.34mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.44mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.46mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.49mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.50mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	0.53mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.55mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	0.55mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.62mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	0.67mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	0.68mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.69mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	0.69mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	0.78mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	0.80mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	45d	1	1.00mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	3d	3	1.01mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.14mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	1.18mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	16d	1	1.19mi
130 Penhow Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,400	$1.48	0d	1	1.26mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	3d	1	1.28mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	23d	2	1.28mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	19d	3	1.28mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	1.33mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	25d	1	1.40mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	0d	1	1.42mi
17 Advantage Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,595	$1.86	45d	1	1.45mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	0d	1	1.48mi
4441 Rhone Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	45d	1	1.48mi
2957 Valbonne Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $515 · $6,180/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus $420,500
17. 2023-08-11
    historical $2,600
18. 2023-08-06
    price $2,600
19. 2023-07-16
    listed $2,750
20. 2008-07-10
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,652 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,652 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,652
• − Insurance: −$3,478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,895
• − Management: −$2,895
• − HOA: −$6,180
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$18,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $420,500 Public Records
• 2023-08-11 Rental Removed $2,600 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-06 Price Changed $2,600 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-16 Listed for Rent $2,750 APPFOLIO
• 2008-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,652 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.