12746 Dunn Creek Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1983 1.25 ac lot Est $287k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.25 acres; Road frontage on a city street with asphalt surface

Exterior

• Parking: Secured parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; Facing east; Residential use
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Patio; Full fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 3 as additional sleeping rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louis S. Sheffield Elementary School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 725 students, 41% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $230k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,118 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,040
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1535 Elmar Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$199,000	$148	52
1537 Elmar Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	3mo	$385,000	$275	46
12361 Cherry Bluff Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+5%)	22mo	$298,000	$226	46
2236 Burton Island Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+15%)	20mo	$330,000	$230	41
13300 Dunn Creek Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,432 (+15%)	11mo	$395,000	$276	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,641
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-56,848
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $88	+0% $23	+5% $-43	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-56	+0% $23	+5% $101	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $81	base $23	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12791 John Crest Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,095	$1.41	14d	1	0.61mi
910 Observatory Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	25d	1	1.03mi
1228 Spring Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,990	$1.47	16d	1	1.18mi
911 Capitol Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,700	$1.14	5d	1	1.26mi
943 Capitol Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,650	$1.11	25d	1	1.31mi
12740 Black Angus Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,929	$1.37	9d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2021-08-18
   soldstatus $106,000
4. 2015-08-11
   soldstatus $109,800
5. 2015-07-30
   soldstatus $109,710 Sold 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

6. 2015-06-18
   status Pending 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

7. 2015-05-01
   listed $119,900 Active 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

8. 2015-04-30
   price $114,900 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

9. 2015-04-30
   price $109,800 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

10. 2015-04-30
    price $109,900 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A MUST SEE HOME!!!! Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land with lots of trees to provide added shade. Spacious Living Room which leads to the Freshly remodeled kitchen. New carpet and paint on both the inside and outside of home. Small shed in the backyard for added storage. New AC, New Cabinets, new countertops, Full set of Appliances, Laundry room inside, Tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms. Enjoy new fixtures and ceiling fans, new electrical switches and plates, hardware, new exterior and interior paint. With a tree swing in the back yard this house has everything! Schedule your viewing today!

11. 1985-10-01
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+374.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $230,000 realMLS
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $109,800 Public Records
• 2015-07-30 Sold (MLS) $109,710 realMLS
• 2015-06-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listed $119,900 realMLS
• 2015-04-30 Price Changed $109,900 realMLS
• 2015-04-30 Price Changed $109,800 realMLS
• 2015-04-30 Price Changed $114,900 realMLS
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.