3466 Willow Pass Rd #54 · Concord, CA 94519

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 1966 ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New price! Affordable and beautifully refreshed 2 bdr / 1 bath single wide mobile home located in Willow Pass Mobile Home Park, an ALL AGES and pet friendly community! This home has been recently painted inside and out and features brand new carpet throughout. The kitchen offers a gas cooktop, wall oven, and new ceiling fan. The bathroom includes a brand new toilet and new light fixtures. Comfort is covered year round with central heating, swamp cooler, and an additional wall A/C unit. Low space rent and a great opportunity for affordable homeownership in a well maintained community. Minutes from BART, downtown Concord, laundrymat, shopping and both highway 4 and 680 on ramps. Financing a

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Central heating
• Wall oven

Tags

• GAS COOKTOP
• WALL OVEN
• NEW CEILING FAN
• NEW TOILET
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• CENTRAL HEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Parking space per unit (1); Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Manufactured in-park mobile home; Single-wide body type
• Construction: Wood siding; Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Covered porch with steps; Storage area; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Built-in oven; Refrigerator; Disposal; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street/main entry level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s); Evaporative cooling; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Storage (utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.8% vs local median 2.8% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#397 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.05%
• DSCR: 5.05
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3466 Willow Pass Rd #52	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	480 (-4%)	18mo	$37,000	$77	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $70,669
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $148,700
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94519

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3330 Willow Pass Rd Concord, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,650	$2.54	24d	2	0.22mi
3720 Clayton Rd Concord, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,000	$3.33	24d	1	1.08mi
2451 Olivera Rd Concord, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$2,475	$3.04	2d	6	1.33mi
1555 Galindo St Concord, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1045	$3,696	$3.54	2d	13	1.34mi
1905 Concord Blvd Concord, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$3,173	$3.11	2d	18	1.40mi
2761 Grant St Concord, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,560	$3.12	3d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $65,000 Pending 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-05-20
    price $65,000
13. 2026-04-18
    status Active
14. 2026-04-18
    price $75,000
15. 2026-03-30
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-03-26
    status Active
17. 2026-03-26
    price $80,000
18. 2026-03-09
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-01-20
    listed $97,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $16,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,965
• After-tax cash flow: $12,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #13519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 125,693
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,058
• Household income: $122,418
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 465.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Asian 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.14%
• Current HPI: 140.9683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $65,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $80,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $97,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $31 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.