418 Ardsley Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$349,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,951 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 10,193 sqft lot $119/sqft · 11% below area Est $394k · 11% under $39/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Massive price reduction!! Don’t miss an exceptional opportunity to secure a well-appointed home in highly sought-after Diamond Creek Estates. This stunning corner lot home features a modern open-concept layout with soaring ceilings and abundant natural light throughout. The main level offers luxury vinyl plank flooring, a spacious living area with a wall of windows, and a well-designed kitchen with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes backyard views and a spa-like bath with an oversized shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers a large game room, dedicated media room, and additional bedro

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Stylish kitchen
• Modern open layout

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MODERN OPEN LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool and playground; Jogging/bike path; Directions provided to the property; Subdivision: Diamond Crk Estates Ph 3; County: Kaufman
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fees $116 quarterly; HOA covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Goodwin & Company

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Security: Video surveillance present
• Utilities: City sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Built in 2021; Smart home features enabled
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Preowned (built 2021)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Back yard fencing; Corner lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen island; Built-in cabinets; Butler's pantry; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms — primary bedroom on level 1; other bedrooms on levels 1 and 2
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Smart home system; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 9
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Washer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,661 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,289
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -11.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 Ardsley Ln	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,951 (0%)	0mo	$349,999	$119	100
417 Ardsley Ln	0.03mi	5/3.0	3,040 (+3%)	0mo	$390,000	$128	93
1213 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.13mi	5/4.5	3,024 (+2%)	2mo	$449,900	$149	83
1417 Fairfield Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,675 (-9%)	2mo	$339,000	$127	70
1510 Flannagan Pond Rd	0.38mi	5/4.0	2,825 (-4%)	4mo	$419,970	$149	68
2108 Martins Pond Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,724 (-8%)	1mo	$399,950	$147	63
502 Fort Davis Dr	0.55mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,325 (+13%)	2mo	$658,753	$198	43
221 Wolf Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,510 (-15%)	1mo	$320,000	$127	42
507 San Angelo Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,272 (+11%)	5mo	$639,442	$195	42
232 Cisco Trl	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,691 (-9%)	2mo	$394,990	$147	42
506 Fort Davis Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,543 (-14%)	2mo	$399,090	$157	42
421 Trailhouse Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,692 (-9%)	4mo	$359,000	$133	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-84,022
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-120,323
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$717 /mo · $8,602/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,465

Max offer price $286,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-259	+0% $-359	+5% $-458	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-596	-5% $-477	+0% $-359	+5% $-240	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-270	base $-359	+0.5pp $-449	+1.0pp $-542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Chesapeake Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$3,400	$1.15	45d	1	0.20mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.21mi
2221 Overton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	3596	$2,649	$0.74	45d	1	0.22mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	0.23mi
100 Acadia Ln Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3216	$2,850	$0.89	9d	1	0.27mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	0.50mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	19d	1	0.54mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,801	$0.96	26d	1	0.62mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,590	$0.88	9d	1	0.62mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	18d	1	0.65mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	0.74mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.74mi
280 Cisco Trl Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2476	$3,800	$1.53	26d	1	0.75mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	14d	1	0.85mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	45d	1	0.85mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.92mi
114 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	6.0	2.5	2837	$2,800	$0.99	45d	1	0.95mi
2902 Hanscom St Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2657	$3,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.97mi
1124 Longhorn Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	26d	1	1.00mi
2452 Brightling Bnd Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3200	$3,495	$1.09	20d	1	1.04mi
1006 Knoxbridge Rd Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3842	$3,800	$0.99	3d	1	1.07mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	1.11mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	1.13mi
130 Monument Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,499	$1.27	26d	1	1.15mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	1.25mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	4d	1	1.26mi
2029 Dovedale Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,200	$1.32	45d	1	1.31mi
1128 Queensdown Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,999	$1.43	45d	1	1.39mi
4254 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,400	$1.21	45d	1	1.44mi
4146 Perch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2456	$2,500	$1.02	22d	1	1.45mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	45d	1	1.46mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $349,999 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,999 Active Option Contract 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,999 Active Option Contract 36 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,999 Active Option Contract 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-16
   status Active 970-char remark
6. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Option Contract 970-char remark
7. 2026-05-06
   price $349,999 970-char remark
8. 2026-04-25
   listed $375,000 Active 970-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,602 · $717/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,602 · $717/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$8,602
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$10,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained home in Diamond Creek Estates offers a modern open-concept layout with luxury vinyl plank flooring and a spa-like primary bath. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and potential for value increases through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in bedrooms and game room — Updating flooring can improve the look and feel of the living spaces
• Both New window treatments — Fresh window treatments can enhance natural light and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Upgrading lighting can improve ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bedrooms and game room — Updating flooring can improve the look and feel of the living spaces ↑
• Both New window treatments — Fresh window treatments can enhance natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Upgrading lighting can improve ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $349,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $375,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+77.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,602 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.