Portland - Build on Your Lot Plan · Lebanon, OH 45036

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 828 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Portland features an open first floorplan, 3 bedrooms, and 2-1/2 Baths

Key facts

• 2-1/2 baths
• 3 bedrooms
• Open first floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FIRST FLOORPLAN
• 3 BEDROOMS
• 2-1/2 BATHS

🏗️ New construction. The $265,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $354,577.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-568 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#457 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lebanon City (suburban): math 67% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #151 of 656 in OH (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bowman Primary School (1,203 students, 24% FRL); Lebanon Junior High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 878 students, 24% FRL); Lebanon High School (math 52% / reading 68%, grade C+, #239 of 781 statewide, top 31%, 1,628 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 828 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 828 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,577
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -25.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1633 Cantebury Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,792 (+2%)	1mo	$355,000	$198	83
1635 Tollgate Ct	0.13mi	3/3.5	1,652 (-6%)	3mo	$356,000	$215	77
270 Ludlow Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,656 (-6%)	4mo	$380,000	$229	75
1172 Silversmith Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,970 (+12%)	2mo	$405,000	$206	75
1136 Reveres Run	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+9%)	4mo	$353,000	$184	71
1537 Garfield Park Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,684 (-4%)	3mo	$395,000	$235	70
263 Bradford Ct	0.54mi	3/3.5	1,770 (+1%)	1mo	$360,000	$203	69
1542 Barrington Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,680 (-4%)	3mo	$349,000	$208	69
1555 Barrington Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,884 (+7%)	2mo	$325,000	$173	67
1155 Silversmith Way	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,014 (+14%)	1mo	$415,000	$206	66
456 N Church Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-11%)	4mo	$380,000	$243	65
1513 Garfield Park Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-12%)	0mo	$363,000	$236	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-81,034
• Equity at exit: $52,869

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-59,733
• Equity at exit: $30,657

Cash invested: $99,282 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $422,900 ($221/sqft)
• Median days on market: 831 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 45036

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,859
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$443 /mo · $5,319/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,102

Max offer price $272,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-323	-5% $-446	+0% $-568	+5% $-691	+10% $-813
Rent	-10% $-757	-5% $-663	+0% $-568	+5% $-474	+10% $-380
Rate	-1.0pp $-390	-0.5pp $-478	base $-568	+0.5pp $-660	+1.0pp $-754

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,644
• Closing costs: $10,637
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 Bugle Bluff Ct Lebanon, OH	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,500	$1.37	62d	1	0.19mi
1616 Hastings Ct Lebanon, OH	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,966	$1.12	97d	1	0.33mi
935 Grandstone Ct Lebanon, OH	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,361	$1.10	4d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $265,000 Active 828 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 827 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 826 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $265,000 Active 825 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 824 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 823 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 822 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 821 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 820 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 819 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 818 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $265,000 Active 817 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $265,000 Active 816 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 810 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 809 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 808 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 805 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $265,000 Active 803 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $265,000 Active 802 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $265,000 Active 801 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $265,000 Active 800 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $265,000 Active 799 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $265,000 Active 798 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $265,000 Active 797 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $265,000 Active 796 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $265,000 Active 795 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $265,000 Active 794 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $265,000 Active 793 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 792 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $265,000 Active 791 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 790 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $265,000 Active 789 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 788 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 787 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $265,000 Active 786 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $265,000 Active 785 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $265,000 Active 784 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 783 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 782 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 781 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $265,000 Active 780 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 779 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 778 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 777 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 774 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 773 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 772 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $265,000 Active 769 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $265,000 Active 767 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $265,000 Active 766 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,862
• − Property taxes: −$5,319
• − Insurance: −$1,773
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$10,315
• Taxable loss: −$13,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,181
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bowman Primary School Middle Lebanon Junior High A OH #143/654 Nat'l #858/14,009 High Lebanon High School C+ OH #239/781 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lebanon City
• NCES district ID: 3904421
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,118
• Composite: 59.25/100
• National rank: #936
• State rank: #151 of 656 in OH

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #7561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebanon, OH
• County: Warren County · 248,603 people
• City population: 42,204
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,204
• Household income: $99,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.95%
• Current HPI: 239.4833
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.33%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-06-18 Listed $265,000 Zillow