4248 Shadow Garden Dr · Valdosta, GA 31632

$265,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2014 4,792 sqft lot $173/sqft · 10% above area Est $242k · 10% over $145/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Eat-in kitchen
• Large pantry

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,939 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,415
• List price: $265,900
• Delta: 9.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4192 Bright Crk	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+0%)	4mo	$255,900	$166	93
4167 Silver Gln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+0%)	4mo	$245,000	$159	92
4160 Willow Round Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+0%)	5mo	$248,000	$161	88
4115 Cider Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,538 (0%)	2mo	$265,000	$172	87
4089 Silver Gln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-0%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	87
4152 Willow Round Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-3%)	3mo	$265,500	$177	86
4097 Nelson Hill Pl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+0%)	2mo	$254,000	$165	85
4122 Nelson Hill Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+0%)	5mo	$252,000	$163	84
4154 Shadow Garden Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+2%)	3mo	$264,500	$168	84
4176 Cider Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-7%)	4mo	$227,605	$159	81
4058 Cottage Hts	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-9%)	1mo	$230,000	$165	69
3988 Nelson Hill Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+6%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $127,680
• Equity at exit: $239,544

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $389,563
• Equity at exit: $516,585

Cash invested: $74,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,292/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $218,282

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,475
• Closing costs: $7,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	21d	1	0.11mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	21d	1	0.12mi
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	44d	1	0.25mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	21d	1	0.29mi
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	21d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,900 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,900 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    price $265,900 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

19. 2026-03-18
    price $265,900 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

20. 2026-02-18
    listed $269,900 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

21. 2026-02-18
    price $269,900 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

22. 2026-02-17
    listed $269,000 New 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bath residence in Hahira! Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers a spacious layout and thoughtful features throughout. This charming home featuring vaulted ceilings in the living room and primary suite. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a large pantry, plus a separate laundry room for convenience. The primary bath includes a jetted tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and fully fenced backyard. With its desirable features, prime location, and inviting design, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in Hahira. Conveniently located just 22 minutes from Moody Air Force Base and 15 minutes from Valdosta.

23. 2024-09-19
    historical $1,600
24. 2024-09-10
    listed $1,600
25. 2024-08-23
    soldstatus $239,900
26. 2024-08-19
    soldstatus $239,900 Closed
27. 2024-06-19
    status Pending
28. 2024-06-02
    listed $239,900 Active
29. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus $219,000 Closed
30. 2023-08-26
    status Pending
31. 2023-08-12
    status Active
32. 2023-08-08
    historical
33. 2023-08-02
    price $224,900
34. 2023-07-08
    listed $229,900 Active
35. 2021-10-11
    soldstatus $184,000
36. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus $184,000
37. 2021-07-28
    listed $189,900
38. 2020-05-15
    soldstatus $156,000
39. 2020-05-14
    soldstatus $156,000
40. 2020-03-29
    listed $159,900
41. 2014-01-23
    soldstatus $129,900
42. 2013-02-01
    soldstatus $730,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,292 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,895
• − Property taxes: −$2,292
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$7,735
• Taxable loss: −$7,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,905
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-63.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $265,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $265,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $269,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $269,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-19 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2024-08-19 Sold (MLS) $239,900 SGMLS
• 2024-06-19 Pending — SGMLS
• 2024-06-02 Listed $239,900 SGMLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) $219,000 SGMLS
• 2023-08-26 Pending — SGMLS
• 2023-08-12 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2023-08-08 Delisted — SGMLS
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $224,900 SGMLS
• 2023-07-08 Listed $229,900 SGMLS
• 2021-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $184,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-05 Sold (MLS) $184,000 SGMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $189,900 SGMLS
• 2020-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-14 Sold (MLS) $156,000 SGMLS
• 2020-03-29 Listed $159,900 SGMLS
• 2014-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2013-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+31.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,292 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.