254 Western Ave S · St. Paul, MN 55102

$285,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,207 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1895 4,094 sqft lot $236/sqft · 12% below area Est $322k · 12% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New stove
• Historic residence

Tags

• HISTORIC RESIDENCE
• 4 SEASON PORCH
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW STOVE
• NEW SEWER LINE
• VIBRANT PERENNIALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,022/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $267,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,328
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -11.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-22,216
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $257
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55102

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,988/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $522	+0% $442	+5% $361	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $322	+0% $442	+5% $561	+10% $680
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $514	base $442	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	1.04mi
740 Victoria St S Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$3,558	$3.31	0d	38	1.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $279,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

15. 2026-04-25
    status Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

16. 2026-03-30
    historical Contingent - Inspection 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

17. 2026-03-30
    status Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

18. 2026-03-26
    historical Contingent - Inspection 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

19. 2026-03-19
    listed $290,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    This charming three-bedroom, one-bath historic residence, built in 1895, combines timeless elegance with modern updates. Ideally situated near delightful boutiques, stunning historic architecture, and renowned dining, this home offers the perfect balance of convenience and character. Step inside to discover a cozy and quaint atmosphere, with a beautiful 4 season porch. The property features a new furnace, new stove and a new sewer line to the street, ensuring peace of mind with these essential upgrades. Outside, you'll find beautiful, vibrant perennials. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of history in a vibrant community where every day is filled with local charm and accessibility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,988
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,901
• − Management: −$2,901
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$190
• After-tax cash flow: $5,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 19,630
• Household income: $76,406
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.83%
• Current HPI: 241.7112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $279,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $290,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,988 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.