1446 Elsinore Dr · Alvin, TX 77583

$275,668

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Land · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $317k · 13% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 1446 Elsinore Drive located in the master planned community of Glendale Lakes and zoned to Fort Bend ISD! This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 full full baths, and an attached 2 car garage. The open-concept layout is complemented by a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Silestone countertops, kitchen island with extended breakfast bar, and Woodmont cabinetry for ample storage and style. The private primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with tub/shower combination, dual vanities, and large walk-in closet. The secondary bathroom boasts of an extended vanity with knee space providing extra space. Step outside to the extended rear patio, perfect for hosting gatherings or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, front gutters, and gorgeous engineered wood flooring in main living area. Don’ delay making this stunning home yours—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Ample storage
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTENDED BREAKFAST BAR
• AMPLE STORAGE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,300 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,506
• List price: $275,668
• Delta: -12.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,646
• Equity at exit: $41,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-41,783
• Equity at exit: $23,835

Cash invested: $77,187 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,446
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,032/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $275,668

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $268	+0% $190	+5% $112	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $96	+0% $190	+5% $284	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $260	base $190	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,917
• Closing costs: $8,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.76mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	45d	1	0.85mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	14d	1	0.92mi
5522 Briana Dee Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,100	$1.53	45d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 1446 Elsinore Drive located in the master planned community of Glendale Lakes and zoned to Fort Bend ISD! This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 full full baths, and an attached 2 car garage. The open-concept layout is complemented by a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Silestone countertops, kitchen island with extended breakfast bar, and Woodmont cabinetry for ample storage and style. The private primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with tub/shower combination, dual vanities, and large walk-in closet. The secondary bathroom boasts of an extended vanity with knee space providing extra space. Step outside to the extended rear patio, perfect for hosting gatherings or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, front gutters, and gorgeous engineered wood flooring in main living area. Don’ delay making this stunning home yours—schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-03-19
   listed $275,668 Active 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 1446 Elsinore Drive located in the master planned community of Glendale Lakes and zoned to Fort Bend ISD! This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 full full baths, and an attached 2 car garage. The open-concept layout is complemented by a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Silestone countertops, kitchen island with extended breakfast bar, and Woodmont cabinetry for ample storage and style. The private primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with tub/shower combination, dual vanities, and large walk-in closet. The secondary bathroom boasts of an extended vanity with knee space providing extra space. Step outside to the extended rear patio, perfect for hosting gatherings or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, front gutters, and gorgeous engineered wood flooring in main living area. Don’ delay making this stunning home yours—schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,045 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,012/yr (+$334/mo · 388.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,032
• − Insurance: −$1,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,019
• Taxable loss: −$2,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$577
• After-tax cash flow: $2,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $275,668 HARMLS