4110 Bronco Rd · Middleburg, FL 32068

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1977 1.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in until you can build your dream home. GREAT POTENTIAL. GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Custom dream home
• No impact fees

Tags

• 1.5-ACRE PROPERTY
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• NEW MANUFACTURED HOME
• CUSTOM DREAM HOME
• NO IMPACT FEES
• GROWING MIDDLEBURG

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.51 acres
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Utilities listed as Other
• Home design: Mobile home; Current use includes residential, manufactured home, and agricultural
• Construction: Construction or structure type: Mobile/Manufactured
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s) on the property; Cleared, agricultural lot on a dead-end street

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (type listed as Other); No heating specified
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer or utility appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $862 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $145k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.48%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $32,146
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $101,765
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $862

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,124

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $944	-5% $903	+0% $862	+5% $821	+10% $780
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $774	+0% $862	+5% $949	+10% $1,037
Rate	-1.0pp $935	-0.5pp $899	base $862	+0.5pp $824	+1.0pp $786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1944 Rock Springs Way Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,020	$1.09	5d	1	0.78mi
2234 Windward Cay Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,730	$0.97	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $145,000
15. 2026-03-17
    price $175,000
16. 2026-03-17
    status Active
17. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-11
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2009-10-29
    historical 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in until you can build your dream home. GREAT POTENTIAL. GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

20. 2009-10-28
    soldstatus $25,000 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in until you can build your dream home. GREAT POTENTIAL. GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

21. 2009-04-27
    listed $29,900 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in until you can build your dream home. GREAT POTENTIAL. GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

22. 2009-01-27
    historical 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in till you can build your dream home. JUST REDUCED GREAT POTENTIAL GREAT OPPORTUNITY

23. 2008-03-31
    listed $51,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Mobile home is being sold as is. Per tax rolls 1.50 acres. NO IMPACT FEES Live in till you can build your dream home. JUST REDUCED GREAT POTENTIAL GREAT OPPORTUNITY

24. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $8,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $8,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+339.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $145,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $180,000 realMLS
• 2009-10-29 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-10-28 Sold (MLS) $25,000 realMLS
• 2009-04-27 Listed $29,900 realMLS
• 2009-01-27 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-03-31 Listed $51,000 realMLS
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $807 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.