14851 Jeffrey Rd #331 · Irvine, CA 92618

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1989 $178/sqft · 7% above area Est $224k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This wonderful 1989 Goldenwest home is situated in a private location. Two bedrooms, two bathrooms and den (could be converted to 3rd bedroom). Spacious living and dining rooms with large picture windows and plush carpets. The kitchen has many cabinets and drawers. Refrigerator included. Good-sized master suite and nice 2nd bedroom and guest bath. Service area comes with Washer + Dryer plus extra storage. Two sheds, Central A/C and easy-to-maintain landscaping.

Key facts

• Many cabinets
• Extra storage
• Private location

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOWS
• MANY CABINETS
• EXTRA STORAGE
• EASY-TO-MAINTAIN LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: The Meadows; Subdivision: Meadows Trailer Park; Directions: From Jeffrey, enter The Meadows park on Poplar.
• HOA & community: Senior community; Street lighting; Land lease in place ($1,650 monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in The Meadows park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (24' x 56'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built reported by seller
• Exterior features: Front yard; Shed; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Utility sink
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry at ground level; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.61%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,020
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: 6.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14851 Jeffrey Rd #241	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$140,000	$97	86
14851 Jeffrey Rd #298	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+4%)	12mo	$180,000	$129	84
14851 Jeffrey Rd #135	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$205,000	$142	83
14851 Jeffrey #334	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$178,000	$124	82
14851 Jeffrey #222	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$227,500	$158	79
14851 Jeffrey Rd #16	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	13mo	$188,500	$151	78
14851 Jeffrey Rd #17	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$297,000	$206	76
14851 Jeffrey Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$263,000	$183	76
14851 Jeffery Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$214,000	$142	72
14851 Jeffrey Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	6mo	$195,000	$127	71
14851 Jeffrey Rd #352	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	7mo	$302,500	$200	68
14851 Jeffrey Rd #38	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+15%)	3mo	$268,000	$174	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $84,512
• Equity at exit: $77,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $212,995
• Equity at exit: $99,225

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$804
• Net cashflow: $1,373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,538	-5% $1,455	+0% $1,373	+5% $1,290	+10% $1,207
Rent	-10% $1,070	-5% $1,221	+0% $1,373	+5% $1,524	+10% $1,675
Rate	-1.0pp $1,493	-0.5pp $1,433	base $1,373	+0.5pp $1,311	+1.0pp $1,248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5224 Walnut Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1428	$4,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.24mi
5 Locust Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1517	$4,495	$2.96	22d	1	0.27mi
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,280	$3.04	45d	1	0.27mi
4 Austin Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,950	$3.67	0d	4	0.30mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,400	$3.62	6d	1	0.31mi
51 Golden Glen St #1 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1048	$3,700	$3.53	8d	1	0.32mi
31 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,250	$3.10	13d	1	0.35mi
5151 Walnut Ave #29 Irvine, CA	2.0	3.0	1142	$3,400	$2.98	45d	1	0.43mi
5101 Chateau Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$4,800	$2.91	26d	1	0.44mi
11 Eccelstone Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,795	$3.24	26d	1	0.50mi
15431 Lorraine Way Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	26d	1	0.52mi
8 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$3,100	$3.07	8d	1	0.53mi
1300 Hayes St Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$3,015	$3.42	0d	23	0.59mi
43 Alderwood #69 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1220	$3,700	$3.03	22d	1	0.62mi
26 Elderglen Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$4,150	$3.76	22d	1	0.64mi
78 Rose Arch #21 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,950	$3.04	45d	1	0.72mi
1 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,200	$3.38	20d	1	0.72mi
63 Wildwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,850	$3.07	45d	1	0.72mi
19 Wildwood #6 Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	5d	1	0.75mi
88 Painted Trellis Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	45d	1	0.75mi
145 Huntington Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,900	$3.19	45d	1	0.76mi
317 Huntington Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	14d	1	0.77mi
30 Dragonfly Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,800	$3.56	26d	1	0.77mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,500	$2.71	45d	1	0.78mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,450	$2.68	20d	1	0.78mi
49 E Yale Loop #26 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$4,300	$2.92	26d	1	0.79mi
365 Huntington #189 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,750	$3.06	45d	1	0.79mi
94 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	45d	1	0.80mi
72 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,200	$2.38	13d	1	0.80mi
4 Van Buren #313 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	903	$3,300	$3.65	13d	1	0.82mi
29 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,950	$3.18	8d	1	0.82mi
104 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,350	$2.47	5d	1	0.86mi
16 Brookmont #85 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	20d	1	0.87mi
62 Emerald Clover Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$4,800	$2.98	8d	1	0.88mi
30 Sunfish #44 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$4,000	$4.04	5d	1	0.88mi
8 Hollowglen Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$3,345	$3.23	45d	1	0.88mi
144 Velvet Flower Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$5,000	$3.10	8d	1	0.89mi
13 Brookmont #60 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1230	$4,300	$3.50	8d	1	0.90mi
21 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,200	$3.36	21d	1	0.90mi
130 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$12,000	$6.80	0d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $239,000 Active 465-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,675
• − Management: −$3,675
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $13,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,232
• After-tax cash flow: $13,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4078.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $239,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $18 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.