176 Old Lexington Rd Unit C · Elgin, TX 78621

$320,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2009 0.76 ac lot $225/sqft · 28% below area Est $528k · 39% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful country living property 5 minutes from downtown Elgin, Main house has two bedrooms, one full bath and one 1/2 bath, Guest house has one bedroom, full bath, kitchen dining and living area, presently is leased for 1K month to month, Fully fenced with mature trees, oversize metal carport for 4 cars, come and see it, wont last under 350K 24 hours notice, showings from 10 am to 8 pm seller works from home and has three babies.

Key facts

• Downtown elgin
• Fully fenced
• Guest house

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING PROPERTY
• DOWNTOWN ELGIN
• GUEST HOUSE
• FULLY FENCED
• MATURE TREES
• OVERSIZE METAL CARPORT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $320,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$527,666) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (56.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (56.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $140,675 (56.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.60%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,666
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -39.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $109,954
• Equity at exit: $288,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $375,300
• Equity at exit: $621,690

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$554 /mo · $6,647/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-1,015

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,994

Max offer price $140,675

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $320,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $320,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    price $335,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Beautiful country living property 5 minutes from downtown Elgin, Main house has two bedrooms, one full bath and one 1/2 bath, Guest house has one bedroom, full bath, kitchen dining and living area, presently is leased for 1K month to month, Fully fenced with mature trees, oversize metal carport for 4 cars, come and see it, wont last under 350K 24 hours notice, showings from 10 am to 8 pm seller works from home and has three babies.

16. 2026-03-24
    listed $345,000 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Beautiful country living property 5 minutes from downtown Elgin, Main house has two bedrooms, one full bath and one 1/2 bath, Guest house has one bedroom, full bath, kitchen dining and living area, presently is leased for 1K month to month, Fully fenced with mature trees, oversize metal carport for 4 cars, come and see it, wont last under 350K 24 hours notice, showings from 10 am to 8 pm seller works from home and has three babies.

17. 2025-06-26
    price
18. 2025-05-09
    listed Active
19. 2023-08-14
    soldstatus
20. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2023-07-10
    status Pending
23. 2023-06-28
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-06-27
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2023-06-05
    listed $300,000 Active
26. 2023-06-01
    status Active
27. 2023-04-25
    price $327,489
28. 2023-04-01
    status Active
29. 2023-03-26
    price $340,755
30. 2022-12-20
    listed $350,000 Active
31. 2022-11-11
    price
32. 2022-09-30
    price
33. 2022-09-17
    price
34. 2022-08-22
    price
35. 2022-06-27
    listed Active
36. 2012-06-26
    soldstatus
37. 2007-01-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,647 · $554/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,647 · $554/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,647
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$18,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $335,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $345,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2023-07-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-28 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-05 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-01 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-04-25 Price Changed $327,489 Unlock MLS
• 2023-04-01 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-03-26 Price Changed $340,755 Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-20 Listed $350,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-11-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-30 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-17 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-08-22 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2012-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,647 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.