697 Goose Creek Rd · Mount Sterling, KY 40391

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Other · 59 Days on market

Built 1991 2.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living with this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on 2.61 rural acres. With plenty of space to spread out, this property offers endless potential for those looking to add their personal touch. The home needs a little TLC but provides a solid opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Whether you're dreaming of a small homestead, garden space, or simply room to roam, this property is ready to be brought back to life. Don't miss your chance to create something special in a beautiful rural setting.

Key facts

• Rural acres
• Garden space
• 2.61 acre lot

Tags

• RURAL ACRES
• GARDEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Barn(s); Wooded lot with many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Mount Sterling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#297 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $108k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,565
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $22,387
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $367	+0% $323	+5% $279	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $259	+0% $323	+5% $388	+10% $453
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $363	base $323	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $155,000
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2001-06-27
    soldstatus $107,900
20. 2001-06-01
    soldstatus $107,900
21. 2001-05-31
    historical
22. 2000-05-18
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,124 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Mount Sterling

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #14214

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 22,725
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+41.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $155,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $180,000 ImagineMLS
• 2001-06-27 Sold (MLS) $107,900 ImagineMLS
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $107,900 Public Records
• 2001-05-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2000-05-18 Listed $109,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,124 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.