3003 Violet St · Needville, TX 77461

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 2011 ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a spacious ½-acre lot in Needville, TX. This property offers comfort, privacy, and recent upgrades that provide peace of mind for the next owner. Inside, you’ll find new wood-plank flooring in the kitchen and a functional layout with great natural light. Major improvements include a new roof, new AC, new water well pump, and a new septic pump, making this home move-in ready. The large lot provides plenty of room for outdoor living, parking, gardening, or future additions. Conveniently located near Needville ISD, local amenities, and quick access to surrounding towns. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New septic pump
• New water well pump
• Large lot

Tags

• NEW WOOD-PLANK FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW WATER WELL PUMP
• NEW SEPTIC PUMP
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.0% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.92%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,890
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $44,831
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $544	+0% $497	+5% $451	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $422	+0% $497	+5% $573	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $539	base $497	+0.5pp $455	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-08
    price $165,000
19. 2026-01-16
    price $175,000
20. 2025-12-21
    price $180,000
21. 2025-11-15
    listed $183,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,173/yr (+$181/mo · 256.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$828
• After-tax cash flow: $5,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $183,800 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.