420 State St · Belleville, IL 62220

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1895 10,454 sqft lot Est $83k · 38% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 420 State Street — a quaint and full-of-potential residence nestled in the heart of Belleville’s established neighborhood. This classic single-family home offers approximately 1810 sq. ft. of living space on a generous 10,454 sq. ft. lot, perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or those looking to customize a home to their tastes. Built in 1895, this property blends old-world character with opportunity for modern updates. The home features a functional layout with versatile living space, excellent ceiling height, and a cozy footprint that’s easy to maintain. With central cooling and the potential to add personal finishes throughout, this home is ready for your

Key facts

• Central cooling
• Functional layout
• Outdoor space

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LIVING SPACE
• CENTRAL COOLING
• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial details provided
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 Volts, Ameren)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; House with two levels; Entry and living space above grade
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Two-level floorplan
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.6% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-East (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 2,568 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,375
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 S 8th St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	676 (-7%)	1mo	$78,000	$115	64
719 W Monroe St	0.30mi	3/1.0	784 (+8%)	13mo	$9,950	$13	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,019
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $41,421
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62220

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,612/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $162	+0% $130	+5% $97	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $76	+0% $130	+5% $184	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $159	base $130	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-02-06
    listed $115,000 Active
14. 2014-08-04
    soldstatus $238,000
15. 2014-07-16
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,612 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,612
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $1,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,152
• Household income: $65,952
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.27%
• Current HPI: 145.9237
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.47%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+318.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,612 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.