24510 Hwy 8 · South Toledo Bend, TX 71446

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 381 Days on market

Built 2024 0.40 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private escape
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• LARGE EAT-AT ISLAND
• PRIVATE ESCAPE
• SIZABLE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.60%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $14,743
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $77,931
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71446

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.6%
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $418	+0% $382	+5% $346	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $326	+0% $382	+5% $437	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $408	base $382	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 377 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 375 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 374 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 371 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 369 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 368 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 361 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $104,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

18. 2026-01-29
    price $109,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

19. 2025-10-29
    price $119,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

20. 2025-09-04
    price $124,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

21. 2025-07-10
    price $129,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

22. 2025-06-03
    listed $134,900 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This is a deal you're not going to want to miss!LIKE-NEW HOME NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. Allows quick access into Texas. Nestled just before the Sabine River bridge, off of Hwy. 8, this newer 2024 model home still has the new home smell. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and sitting on . 4 acre of land. With the Sabine River just in sight, you can enjoy fishing and canoeing just minutes away. Need to hop on over to Texas. .. You got it!New septic system and well in place. This home is priced to sell. Ask about Seller financing options and incentives. Schedule your viewing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $3,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $3,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201830
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $44,822
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4674
• State rank: #18 of 98 in LA

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Vernon Parish
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• Population (ZIP): 21,275
• Household income: $55,925
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Vernon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,401 people
• By 2030: 43,015 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 38,171 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 34,087 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 28,267 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 25,486 · -43.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vernon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.6% · R 83.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.06%
• Current HPI: 128.8849
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $104,900 GFPAR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $109,900 GFPAR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $119,900 GFPAR
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $124,900 GFPAR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $129,900 GFPAR
• 2025-06-03 Listed $134,900 GFPAR

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.