Carlisle Plan · Cape Coral, FL 33914

$359,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,015 sqft · SingleFamily · 292 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers 2,015 square feet of usable space at an affordable price point, providing your family with the living area they truly need without breaking the bank. The open concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. A two-car garage adds convenience and storage for your vehicles. The great room trey ceiling boasts a high ceiling of up to 10 feet, making it feel even more spacious and airy. The home is equipped with a GE stainless steel appliance package, ensuring durability and style in the kitchen.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 292 days

🏗️ New construction. The $359,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $750,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Elementary School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 1,231 students, 38% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 1607 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,685 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.90%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 20.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $750,000
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -52.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 3.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3935 SW 17th Pl	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,280 (+13%)	0mo	$1,060,000	$465	55
5011 SW 5th Pl	1.79mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,050 (+2%)	2mo	$920,000	$449	54
2511 SW 35th Ln	1.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,973 (-2%)	1mo	$589,900	$299	54
5308 SW 11th Pl	1.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-4%)	1mo	$470,000	$244	52
428 SW 35th St	1.79mi	4/2.0	2,180 (+8%)	0mo	$605,000	$278	51
3911 SW 25th Ct	1.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,217 (+10%)	1mo	$750,000	$338	43
4934 SW 10th Ave	1.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,268 (+13%)	1mo	$725,000	$320	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-334,499
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.80×
• Total profit: $-587,601
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 116 active · 78 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $470,000 ($241/sqft)
• Median days on market: 162 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +54.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33914

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 1607
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$938 /mo · $11,250/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-3,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,101

Max offer price $285,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,690	-5% $-2,950	+0% $-3,209	+5% $-3,468	+10% $-3,727
Rent	-10% $-3,449	-5% $-3,329	+0% $-3,209	+5% $-3,089	+10% $-2,969
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,831	-0.5pp $-3,018	base $-3,209	+0.5pp $-3,403	+1.0pp $-3,601

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 SW 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,975	$1.98	119d	1	0.05mi
4131 SW 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2007	$7,680	$3.83	62d	1	0.05mi
4116 SW 16th Pl Cape Coral, FL	5.0	3.0	2193	$2,686	$1.22	87d	1	0.09mi
4024 Chiquita Blvd S Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2458	$5,500	$2.24	82d	1	0.19mi
1632 SW 43rd Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,199	$1.29	63d	1	0.20mi
4101 Chiquita Blvd S Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	82d	1	0.20mi
1623 SW 43rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$3,350	$2.05	65d	1	0.22mi
1519 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	2246	$3,300	$1.47	9d	1	0.27mi
1721 SW 44th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1993	$1,906	$0.96	9d	1	0.29mi
1513 SW 43rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$4,850	$2.79	9d	1	0.30mi
4226 SW 14th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,535	$2.49	62d	1	0.31mi
4229 SW 14th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2800	$3,300	$1.18	119d	1	0.34mi
1403 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$5,080	$3.15	119d	1	0.41mi
1403 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$5,080	$3.13	76d	1	0.41mi
3829 SW 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	5.0	2.0	2556	$2,900	$1.13	65d	1	0.42mi
3818 SW 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2265	$3,200	$1.41	97d	1	0.46mi
1733 SW 38th Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2459	$2,750	$1.12	9d	1	0.46mi
1816 SW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	85d	1	0.51mi
1816 SW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	87d	1	0.51mi
1816 SW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,900	$1.14	111d	1	0.51mi
1816 SW 38th Ter Unit NA Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	86d	1	0.51mi
4022 SW 12th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,695	$1.88	119d	1	0.51mi
2026 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2282	$2,895	$1.27	62d	1	0.53mi
1502 SW 38th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2294	$5,800	$2.53	119d	1	0.55mi
1502 SW 38th St Unit Vacation Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2294	$5,800	$2.53	65d	1	0.55mi
4610 SW 16th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2006	$1,999	$1.00	0d	1	0.56mi
3832 SW 20th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$5,000	$3.00	62d	1	0.59mi
4628 SW 18th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,800	$0.92	87d	1	0.63mi
1730 Savona Point Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,993	$1.79	0d	26	0.64mi
1140 SW 44th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,462	$3.19	119d	1	0.67mi
1140 SW 44th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,460	$3.19	76d	1	0.67mi
1609 Savona Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,770	$1.13	119d	1	0.69mi
1609 Savona Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,770	$1.13	9d	1	0.69mi
1114 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$1,846	$1.01	82d	1	0.70mi
2114 SW 39th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	76d	1	0.71mi
2104 SW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,000	$1.84	119d	1	0.72mi
2110 SW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2196	$2,980	$1.36	111d	1	0.74mi
3729 Agualinda Blvd Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2339	$3,000	$1.28	117d	1	0.75mi
1103 SW 40th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$1,890	$1.04	107d	1	0.76mi
1922 Cape Coral Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2287	$2,900	$1.27	92d	1	0.86mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $359,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Carlisle planLocated in SW Cape Coral, FL
• Construction: Living area: 2015 (listed value)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: CarlisleActive new construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $359,000 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $359,000 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $359,000 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $359,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-09-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 282 DOM
6. 2026-09-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 281 DOM
7. 2026-09-11
   days on market $359,000 Active 280 DOM
8. 2026-09-05
   days on market $359,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-09-04
   days on market $359,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-08-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-08-28
    days on market $359,000 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-08-26
    days on market $359,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-08-24
    days on market $359,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-08-23
    days on market $359,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2026-08-21
    days on market $359,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-08-20
    days on market $359,000 Active 258 DOM
17. 2026-08-19
    days on market $359,000 Active 257 DOM
18. 2026-08-18
    days on market $359,000 Active 256 DOM
19. 2026-08-16
    days on market $359,000 Active 254 DOM
20. 2026-08-15
    days on market $359,000 Active 253 DOM
21. 2026-08-13
    days on market $359,000 Active 251 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    days on market $359,000 Active 247 DOM
23. 2026-08-06
    days on market $359,000 Active 244 DOM
24. 2026-08-05
    days on market $359,000 Active 243 DOM
25. 2026-07-26
    days on market $359,000 Active 233 DOM
26. 2026-07-24
    days on market $359,000 Active 231 DOM
27. 2026-07-23
    days on market $359,000 Active 230 DOM
28. 2026-07-22
    days on market $359,000 Active 229 DOM
29. 2026-07-21
    days on market $359,000 Active 228 DOM
30. 2026-07-18
    days on market $359,000 Active 225 DOM
31. 2026-07-18
    days on market $359,000 Active 224 DOM
32. 2026-07-16
    days on market $359,000 Active 223 DOM
33. 2026-07-15
    days on market $359,000 Active 222 DOM
34. 2026-07-13
    days on market $359,000 Active 220 DOM
35. 2026-07-13
    days on market $359,000 Active 219 DOM
36. 2026-07-12
    days on market $359,000 Active 218 DOM
37. 2026-07-10
    days on market $359,000 Active 217 DOM
38. 2026-07-10
    days on market $359,000 Active 216 DOM
39. 2026-07-07
    days on market $359,000 Active 214 DOM
40. 2026-07-06
    days on market $359,000 Active 213 DOM
41. 2026-07-05
    days on market $359,000 Active 212 DOM
42. 2026-07-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 209 DOM
43. 2026-07-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 208 DOM
44. 2026-06-30
    days on market $359,000 Active 207 DOM
45. 2026-06-29
    days on market $359,000 Active 206 DOM
46. 2026-06-28
    days on market $359,000 Active 205 DOM
47. 2026-06-25
    days on market $359,000 Active 201 DOM
48. 2026-06-22
    days on market $359,000 Active 198 DOM
49. 2026-06-17
    days on market $359,000 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-06-16
    days on market $359,000 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$11,250
• − Insurance: −$8,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,917
• − Management: −$2,917
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$53,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-25,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a spacious and well-maintained living space with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The exterior and interior are in excellent condition, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gulf Elementary School B+ FL #435/2,144 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle Gulf Middle School B+ FL #116/571 Nat'l #1,503/14,009 High Ida S. Baker High School D- FL #223/667 Nat'l #6,744/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 45,540
• Household income: $83,503
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.73%
• Current HPI: 286.3064
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $359,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Carlisle planLocated in SW Cape Coral, FL
• Construction: Living area: 2015 (listed value)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: CarlisleActive new construction plan