2117 Windbreak Drive #12 #12 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$113,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 333 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $138k · 18% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home at Tradewinds Mobile Estates in Rosamond. Spanning an impressive 1,440 square feet, this spacious retreat boasts a newly installed carpet and a fresh coat of paint, creating a welcoming atmosphere. The open-concept kitchen seamlessly flows into the living areas, while the Jack-and-Jill bathroom adds a touch of privacy and functionality. Nestled in the desirable Tradewinds Mobile Estates community, this mobile home offers an unbeatable opportunity for those seeking a low-maintenance, comfortable lifestyle. Don't miss your chance to make this your new haven. * * * SELLER F

Key facts

• Fresh coat of paint
• Open-concept kitchen
• Desirable community

Tags

• NEWLY INSTALLED CARPET
• FRESH COAT OF PAINT
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• DESIRABLE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($788 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,276 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.82%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2104 Windbreak Drive #18 #18	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	84
2021 Windharp #30	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$108,000	$70	80
2116 Windflow Drive #66 #66	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$98,950	$74	77
2000 Windcurrent Dr #147	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	75
2009 Windbreak Dr #3	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-14%)	0mo	$130,000	$106	73
2016 Windcurrent Dr #143	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	14mo	$151,500	$100	72
1550 W 20th St Spc 67	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$130,000	$90	70
2013 Sonja Dr #73	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	12mo	$142,500	$96	65
1550 20th St W #70	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+4%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	64
1550 W 20th St #18	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	5mo	$160,000	$100	55
1550 20th W	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	5mo	$175,000	$109	55
1550 20th St W #97	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	12mo	$162,000	$101	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $83,295
• Equity at exit: $47,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $198,914
• Equity at exit: $70,338

Cash invested: $31,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,709/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $1,146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $113,950

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,488
• Closing costs: $3,418
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	1d	1	0.13mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	43d	1	0.18mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	3d	1	0.18mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	15d	1	0.46mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	1d	1	0.78mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	10d	1	0.78mi
2821 Desert St Unit C Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,795	$1.84	1d	1	0.89mi
2910 B St Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.5	1775	$1,542	$0.87	19d	1	0.97mi
3017 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,800	$1.54	43d	1	0.97mi
3124 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.08mi
3172 Shelley St Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1192	$2,300	$1.93	22d	1	1.23mi
2516 Starbrite Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,900	$1.88	1d	1	1.26mi
2608 Starbrite Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1542	$2,795	$1.81	1d	1	1.29mi
3356 Firebush Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,550	$1.58	20d	1	1.29mi
3424 Brabham Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,150	$1.58	43d	1	1.36mi
3317 Dale Ct Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$800	$0.60	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-07-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-11
   price $113,950
3. 2025-05-14
   status Active
4. 2025-05-07
   historical
5. 2025-02-24
   price $114,950
6. 2024-08-25
   price $118,950
7. 2024-07-25
   listed $128,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,383
• − Property taxes: −$1,709
• − Insurance: −$2,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − Depreciation: −$3,315
• Taxable income: $12,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,070
• After-tax cash flow: $10,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-01 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $113,950 AVMLS
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $114,950 AVMLS
• 2024-08-25 Price Changed $118,950 AVMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $128,950 AVMLS