169 Standing Rock Ln · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$2,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2023 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One of the largest floorplans in highly desirable Thunder Rock with 2525 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, a family room and a game room. From the covered front porch, enter through the large foyer and pass the stairs, garage access, guest room and bathroom, you are treated to the open family room, kitchen and dining room. The kitchen features a large island, quartz countertops, a huge pantry and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious first floor bedroom and full bath could serve as a guest quarters and/or office. Up the stairs, you enter the game room that is the hub for the primary bedroom, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, utility/laundry room, and extra storage clo

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Huge pantry
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE FOYER
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• HUGE PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Thunder Rock HOA); Annual HOA fee; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage (2-car); Garage door opener; Total parking for 4 vehicles; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Northwest-facing; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rear porch; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; In-ground sprinklers; Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (1); Second level bedrooms (2)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double vanity in at least one bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (electric); Electric heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Entrance foyer; Double vanity; Walk-in closets; Multiple living areas; Multiple dining areas; Separate/formal dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$342,770) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $3k).
• Cap rate 794.2% vs local median 3.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood El (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 202 students, 49% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $20 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $840 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 83.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 794.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 2813.83%
• DSCR: 126.20
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Cascade Falls Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,207 (-3%)	1mo	$332,990	$151	84
100 Greystone Ct	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,372 (+4%)	2mo	$365,000	$154	82
128 Southridge Trl	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,109 (-7%)	1mo	$329,990	$156	72
100 Cascade Falls Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$332,990	$162	70
264 Rock Springs Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	2mo	$297,990	$145	70
109 Southridge Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$295,990	$144	68
124 Southridge Trl	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,097 (-8%)	1mo	$321,740	$153	68
240 Rock Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$304,990	$148	67
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-14%)	1mo	$281,999	$145	56
248 Rock Springs Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-14%)	2mo	$284,999	$146	55
105 Southridge Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-14%)	2mo	$292,999	$150	54
104 Southridge Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-14%)	2mo	$311,999	$160	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 141.02×
• Total profit: $117,579
• Equity at exit: $447

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 281.45×
• Total profit: $235,498
• Equity at exit: $259

Cash invested: $840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $45/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $1,969

Break-even live

Break-even rent $26

Max offer price $2,999

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,971	-5% $1,970	+0% $1,969	+5% $1,968	+10% $1,967
Rent	-10% $1,770	-5% $1,870	+0% $1,969	+5% $2,069	+10% $2,168
Rate	-1.0pp $1,971	-0.5pp $1,970	base $1,969	+0.5pp $1,968	+1.0pp $1,967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $750
• Closing costs: $90
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
169 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	3.0	2525	$2,750	$1.09	6d	1	0.03mi
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	45d	1	0.23mi
401 Verbena Dr Marble Falls, TX	3.0	3.0	2476	$2,800	$1.13	45d	1	1.34mi
125 Slenderleaf Dr Marble Falls, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,500	$1.22	11d	1	1.40mi
193 Slenderleaf Dr Marble Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $2,999 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,999 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,999 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,999 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   listed $2,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$168
• − Property taxes: −$45
• − Insurance: −$15
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,418
• − Management: −$2,418
• − Depreciation: −$87
• Taxable income: $25,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,018
• After-tax cash flow: $17,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $2,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-29 Rental Removed $2,999 ACTRIS
• 2026-05-28 Listed for Rent $2,999 ACTRIS
• 2024-05-22 Rental Removed $2,700 ACTRIS
• 2024-04-24 Listed for Rent $2,700 ACTRIS
• 2024-04-22 Rental Removed $2,725 ACTRIS
• 2024-03-29 Rental Removed $2,725 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-26 Listed for Rent $2,725 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $2,725 ACTRIS
• 2024-02-11 Rental Removed $2,799 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-10 Listed for Rent $2,799 ACTRIS
• 2024-01-28 Rental Removed $2,850 ACTRIS
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent $2,850 ACTRIS
• 2024-01-16 Listed for Rent $2,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-15 Rental Removed $2,850 ACTRIS
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $2,850 ACTRIS
• 2023-11-21 Listed for Rent $2,900 ACTRIS
• 2023-11-21 Rental Removed $2,900 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-20 Listed for Rent $2,900 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+147.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,888 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.