2140 Estevez Dr · The Villages, FL 32159

$244,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1997 3,520 sqft lot Est $283k · 14% under $204/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom Patio Villa located in the desirable Village of Vera Cruz within The Villages. This beautifully maintained home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living with an open floor plan, spacious living and dining areas, and abundant natural light. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the screened lanai or patio area, perfect for embracing the Florida lifestyle. This home comes complete with a 1-Year Broward Factory Warranty for added peace of mind. Recent updates include a roof installed in 10/2019, HVAC replaced in 11/2022, garage door opener replaced in 12/2022, new irrigation controller installed in 5/2023, new quartz countertops installed in 10/2024, new kitchen and bathr

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Screened lanai
• Bond paid villa

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW IRRIGATION CONTROLLER
• BOND PAID VILLA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community called THE VILLAGES with required monthly HOA fee of $204; Community amenities include clubhouse, gated entry, golf course, pool, recreation facilities, and tennis courts; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, golf carts allowed, street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected; High-speed/ broadband internet available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with conventional construction materials
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 583 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,439/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,680 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2107 Escobar Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,143 (0%)	3mo	$248,000	$217	93
1407 Montez Loop	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+0%)	5mo	$329,900	$288	90
1410 Almanza Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,174 (+3%)	2mo	$305,000	$260	87
2022 Claudio Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,148 (+0%)	11mo	$295,000	$257	86
2102 Estevez Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-2%)	7mo	$240,000	$214	85
2105 Escobar Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-2%)	10mo	$240,500	$215	85
1428 Almanza Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,174 (+3%)	3mo	$299,900	$255	84
1404 Almanza Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,234 (+8%)	3mo	$353,000	$286	79
1268 Camero Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	74
1216 Chaparral Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,239 (+8%)	3mo	$292,000	$236	74
2109 Suarez Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	3mo	$310,000	$248	65
1313 LA Estrellita Way	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	11mo	$287,000	$230	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,179
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,350
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,651/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $244,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $190	+0% $121	+5% $52	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $24	+0% $121	+5% $217	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $183	base $121	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	0.22mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	0.57mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	0.98mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	1.20mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	22d	1	1.26mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	22d	1	1.29mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	1.31mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	1.40mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	1.40mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,720	$1.67	22d	38	1.40mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	1.42mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	1.43mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,639	$1.52	22d	36	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $244,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2025-11-05
    status Active
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $249,900 Active
20. 2019-10-11
    soldstatus $170,000
21. 1997-05-09
    soldstatus $73,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,651 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,651 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$2,651
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$2,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+245.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $73,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,651 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.