107 Saranac Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$284,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,529 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2018 7,143 sqft lot $186/sqft · 8% below area Est $312k · 9% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GENEROUS CABINET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• FULL-SIZE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $50 covering common area maintenance; Community mailbox

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking; Two covered garage spaces; Four total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces north; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank and masonry exterior; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear covered porch and patio; Wood fencing (fenced yard); Landscaped yard with medium-size trees; Front yard; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Granite counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,636 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.74%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,298
• List price: $284,999
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Tolo Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-3%)	0mo	$253,990	$171	66
153 Tolo Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-3%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	66
150 Tolo Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-3%)	1mo	$284,990	$192	66
445 Lucky Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-3%)	2mo	$276,990	$186	64
131 Tolo Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-3%)	3mo	$284,990	$192	64
435 Lucky Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-0%)	1mo	$299,490	$197	63
130 Tolo Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (-0%)	5mo	$306,900	$202	62
612 Cardinal St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (-5%)	1mo	$305,000	$210	53
118 Anderson Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+2%)	6mo	$339,000	$218	53
137 Tolo Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,639 (+7%)	4mo	$299,900	$183	48
437 Lucky Ave	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,648 (+8%)	2mo	$300,490	$182	46
124 Tolo Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,674 (+10%)	3mo	$325,900	$195	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $114,408
• Equity at exit: $256,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $370,191
• Equity at exit: $553,690

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$587 /mo · $7,045/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,807

Max offer price $170,636

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-486	-5% $-567	+0% $-647	+5% $-728	+10% $-809
Rent	-10% $-804	-5% $-726	+0% $-647	+5% $-569	+10% $-490
Rate	-1.0pp $-504	-0.5pp $-575	base $-647	+0.5pp $-721	+1.0pp $-796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	0.08mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.25mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.46mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	6d	1	0.62mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.98mi
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	1.01mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	1.16mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.22mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	1.35mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	45d	1	1.37mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	1.40mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,999 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,999 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,999 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,999 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,999 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $284,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,999 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $284,999 Active 1057-char remark
16. 2019-01-17
    soldstatus Sold 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

17. 2018-12-22
    status Pending 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

18. 2018-10-14
    price $222,866 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

19. 2018-09-25
    price $222,166 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

20. 2018-08-04
    price $220,166 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

21. 2018-06-07
    price $218,166 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

22. 2018-06-02
    price $217,581 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

23. 2018-05-14
    listed $214,581 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    MLS# 2440185 - Built by Brohn Homes - CONST. COMPLETED Oct 22! ~ Listed during construction. Disregard days on market. Most popular one story plan. Covered back patio, 10' ceilings, open floor plan, full sprinkler system, double vanity in master. Tile in all main areas, carpet in bedrooms. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,045 · $587/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,045 · $587/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,045
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$12,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $284,999 Unlock MLS
• 2019-01-17 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2018-12-22 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2018-10-14 Price Changed $222,866 Unlock MLS
• 2018-09-25 Price Changed $222,166 Unlock MLS
• 2018-08-04 Price Changed $220,166 Unlock MLS
• 2018-06-07 Price Changed $218,166 Unlock MLS
• 2018-06-02 Price Changed $217,581 Unlock MLS
• 2018-05-14 Listed $214,581 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,045 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.