9918 Knollwood Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$550,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 8,594 sqft lot $148/sqft · 20% below area Est $711k · 23% under $129/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is the perfect blend of elegance and functionality, designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Boasting an open floorplan with soaring 20-foot ceilings, a cozy fireplace, and a dramatic wall of windows, this home is filled with natural light and style. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring a pot filler, abundant cabinet space, a charming breakfast area, and a seamless flow into the family room, perfect for gatherings. Two bedrooms, including the luxurious spa-like primary suite, are conveniently located downstairs, offering flexibility and privacy. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room and a dedicated media room for movie nights, plus two additional bedrooms. The stone and brick elevation adds timeless curb appeal, while the 3-car garage provides ample storage. Situated in a desirable community, this home is designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• POT FILLER
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $388k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1234 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,533 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $710,784
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -22.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9918 Knollwood Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,831 (+3%)	1mo	$550,000	$144	89
9927 Hunters Run Dr	0.66mi	5/4.5	3,802 (+2%)	1mo	$717,990	$189	59
10022 Orchard Fld	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,563 (-4%)	1mo	$597,900	$168	58
10039 Cypress Path	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,348 (-10%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	55
1518 Sunrise View Ln	0.54mi	5/3.5	3,234 (-13%)	1mo	$590,000	$182	51
9602 Maple Wood Dr	0.68mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,840 (+3%)	1mo	$699,000	$182	51
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,180 (-14%)	1mo	$605,000	$190	49
8914 Orchard Cv	0.58mi	4/4.0 (-1)	4,174 (+12%)	2mo	$825,000	$198	42
9811 Mount Shasta	0.64mi	5/5.0	4,150 (+12%)	1mo	$699,900	$169	42
1207 Morning Rose Dr	0.75mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,361 (-10%)	2mo	$600,000	$179	41
1310 Crown Forest Dr	0.65mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,196 (+13%)	1mo	$1,199,000	$286	36
9806 Mount Shasta	0.61mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,268 (+15%)	1mo	$699,000	$164	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-142,752
• Equity at exit: $115,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-238,929
• Equity at exit: $106,843

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1234
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,615 /mo · $19,377/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $-1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,148

Max offer price $387,533

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-817	-5% $-973	+0% $-1,128	+5% $-1,284	+10% $-1,440
Rent	-10% $-1,501	-5% $-1,315	+0% $-1,128	+5% $-942	+10% $-755
Rate	-1.0pp $-851	-0.5pp $-988	base $-1,128	+0.5pp $-1,271	+1.0pp $-1,416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	5d	1	0.41mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	12d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 995-char remark

   Show marketing remark (995 chars)

   This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is the perfect blend of elegance and functionality, designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Boasting an open floorplan with soaring 20-foot ceilings, a cozy fireplace, and a dramatic wall of windows, this home is filled with natural light and style. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring a pot filler, abundant cabinet space, a charming breakfast area, and a seamless flow into the family room, perfect for gatherings. Two bedrooms, including the luxurious spa-like primary suite, are conveniently located downstairs, offering flexibility and privacy. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room and a dedicated media room for movie nights, plus two additional bedrooms. The stone and brick elevation adds timeless curb appeal, while the 3-car garage provides ample storage. Situated in a desirable community, this home is designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 995-char remark

   Show marketing remark (995 chars)

   This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is the perfect blend of elegance and functionality, designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Boasting an open floorplan with soaring 20-foot ceilings, a cozy fireplace, and a dramatic wall of windows, this home is filled with natural light and style. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring a pot filler, abundant cabinet space, a charming breakfast area, and a seamless flow into the family room, perfect for gatherings. Two bedrooms, including the luxurious spa-like primary suite, are conveniently located downstairs, offering flexibility and privacy. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room and a dedicated media room for movie nights, plus two additional bedrooms. The stone and brick elevation adds timeless curb appeal, while the 3-car garage provides ample storage. Situated in a desirable community, this home is designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

3. 2026-03-07
   listed $550,000 Active 995-char remark

   Show marketing remark (995 chars)

   This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is the perfect blend of elegance and functionality, designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Boasting an open floorplan with soaring 20-foot ceilings, a cozy fireplace, and a dramatic wall of windows, this home is filled with natural light and style. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring a pot filler, abundant cabinet space, a charming breakfast area, and a seamless flow into the family room, perfect for gatherings. Two bedrooms, including the luxurious spa-like primary suite, are conveniently located downstairs, offering flexibility and privacy. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room and a dedicated media room for movie nights, plus two additional bedrooms. The stone and brick elevation adds timeless curb appeal, while the 3-car garage provides ample storage. Situated in a desirable community, this home is designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

4. 2026-03-06
   historical
5. 2026-01-09
   price $550,000
6. 2025-12-14
   listed $595,000 Active
7. 2025-12-12
   historical
8. 2025-11-06
   price $630,000
9. 2025-08-12
   listed $680,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $19,377 · $1,615/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,377 · $1,615/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$19,377
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,531
• − Management: −$4,531
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$22,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is in good condition with a good curb appeal. It has a good resale and rental value and can be further enhanced with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and can prevent water damage to the exterior.
• Both Replace any worn-out flooring — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — New lighting can brighten the home and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and can prevent water damage to the exterior. ↑
• Both Replace any worn-out flooring — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — New lighting can brighten the home and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $595,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $630,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $680,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+118.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,377 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.