5940 Ali Grace Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34771

$409,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 6,123 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover our only Move-In Ready Selby Flex plan located within close walking distance to the Community Amenities! This beautifully designed new home features soaring 9'4" ceilings and a bright, open-concept layout with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. The spacious Great Room flows seamlessly to a rear covered Lanai, perfect for entertaining and relaxed outdoor living. Elegant tile flooring highlights the main living areas, while the upgraded kitchen impresses with stylish 42" upper cabinets, quartz countertops, a center island, large corner pantry, and stainless steel appliances. Retreat to the private Primary suite offering a luxurious en-suite bath with dual sinks in an

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Rear covered lanai
• En-suite bath

Tags

• REAR COVERED LANAI
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• LARGE CORNER PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $840
• Financial info: CDD present
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Real Manage / Ryan Fernandes; Monthly HOA fee of $70 (includes pool); Community pool and playground; Deed restrictions; Irrigation with reclaimed water; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x20); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled (reclaimed water)
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residence completed; Northeast facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Built by Risewell Homes (Selby Flex model)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Inside utility/Great Room adjacency

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Tree Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 795 students, 48% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1378 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,771 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-99,781
• Equity at exit: $61,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-129,821
• Equity at exit: $35,448

Cash invested: $114,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34771

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1378
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,451/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,390

Max offer price $317,500

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,498
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1978 Education St Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,400	$1.39	18d	1	0.03mi
2042 Iorio St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	24d	1	0.15mi
6008 Vision Rd Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2103	$2,450	$1.17	15d	1	0.16mi
1874 Crooked Creek St Saint Cloud, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2046	$2,648	$1.29	24d	1	0.25mi
6107 Wooded Brush Aly Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.0	2603	$2,600	$1.00	4d	1	0.54mi
6090 Windy Leaf Aly Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.0	2603	$2,475	$0.95	8d	1	0.59mi
1679 Bay Breeze Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.88mi
5684 Western Sun Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,500	$1.49	24d	1	0.93mi
5574 Bakewell Pl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1957	$2,350	$1.20	22d	1	0.99mi
5642 Western Sun Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,995	$1.19	3d	1	1.14mi
6254 Alligator Lake Shr E Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	24d	1	1.29mi
5476 Angel Way Saint Cloud, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,149	$2.18	2d	34	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $409,990
3. 2026-02-04
   listed $399,990 Active
4. 2025-07-08
   soldstatus $4,690,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$3,451
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$13,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,297
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,257
• Household income: $97,415
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.44%
• Current HPI: 290.3095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-91.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $399,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $4,690,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,451 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.