2826 Lakeview Dr · Sneads, FL 39845

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1986 8,276 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $222k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bed 2 full bath home on Lake Seminole is turn key. The Bright Open Kitchen overlooks the Huge living area, Nice sized Master Bedroom has En suite, and you'll find two additional bedrooms, and a bonus room, outside is fenced with a nice rear deck overlooking the BOAT house and COVERED DOCK. Bring your Boat! 20 mins to Bainbridge or Donalsonville easy commute for shopping and all your needs.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#682 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Seminole County (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #108 of 174 in GA (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 4 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $180k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,718 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,282
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -19.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-36,984
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-42,316
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39845

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $158,201

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-72	+0% $-123	+5% $-174	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-176	+0% $-123	+5% $-69	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-77	base $-123	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $179,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $179,900 Price Change 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $189,900 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Spacious 3 bed 2 full bath home on Lake Seminole is turn key. The Bright Open Kitchen overlooks the Huge living area, Nice sized Master Bedroom has En suite, and you'll find two additional bedrooms, and a bonus room, outside is fenced with a nice rear deck overlooking the BOAT house and COVERED DOCK. Bring your Boat! 20 mins to Bainbridge or Donalsonville easy commute for shopping and all your needs.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $179,900 Price Change 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Spacious 3 bed 2 full bath home on Lake Seminole is turn key. The Bright Open Kitchen overlooks the Huge living area, Nice sized Master Bedroom has En suite, and you'll find two additional bedrooms, and a bonus room, outside is fenced with a nice rear deck overlooking the BOAT house and COVERED DOCK. Bring your Boat! 20 mins to Bainbridge or Donalsonville easy commute for shopping and all your needs.

19. 2025-11-10
    historical
20. 2025-10-25
    price $169,900
21. 2025-10-18
    listed $148,900 New
22. 2025-10-18
    historical
23. 2025-10-06
    price $149,900
24. 2025-09-20
    price $159,900
25. 2025-08-15
    price $168,900
26. 2025-07-23
    listed $174,900 New
27. 2025-03-05
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed
28. 2025-03-05
    soldstatus $90,000
29. 2025-02-07
    status Pending
30. 2024-12-04
    price $112,000
31. 2024-08-19
    price $117,000
32. 2024-07-24
    price $125,000
33. 2024-06-26
    price $134,900
34. 2024-05-19
    listed $144,900 Active
35. 2022-12-19
    soldstatus $136,500
36. 2022-12-16
    soldstatus $136,500
37. 2022-06-15
    listed $146,900
38. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $129,500
39. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $105,000
40. 2011-04-27
    soldstatus $65,000
41. 2006-04-21
    soldstatus $70,500
42. 1996-05-03
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$876/yr (+$73/mo · 142.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$2,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,116
• After-tax cash flow: $-358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole County
• NCES district ID: 1304530
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $32,870
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7918
• State rank: #108 of 174 in GA

Livability — Sneads

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #14148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,155

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,748 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 6,975 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 6,198 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 4,592 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 2,953 · -63.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 35% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.4) · D 29.7% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.4pp · 2024: -40.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.4 2020: R+34.9 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+16.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.93%
• Current HPI: 164.1565
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+763.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $189,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $148,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $149,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $168,900 GAMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $174,900 GAMLS
• 2025-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-05 Sold (MLS) $90,000 SWGABOR
• 2025-02-07 Pending — SWGABOR
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $112,000 SWGABOR
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $117,000 SWGABOR
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $125,000 SWGABOR
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $134,900 SWGABOR
• 2024-05-19 Listed $144,900 SWGABOR
• 2022-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $136,500 Public Records
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) $136,500 SWGABOR
• 2022-06-15 Listed $146,900 SWGABOR
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.