5393 Sawmill #35 · Paradise, CA 95969

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 $97/sqft · 56% below area Est $267k · 48% under $600/mo HOA · 47% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.3/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunities like this don’t last—schedule your showing today and take advantage of the two months of free rent while it’s available! Move-In Ready 3-Bedroom Home with Views & Community Perks. Enjoy a tremendous in-town setting with this brand-new, move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home tucked away at the back of the park for added privacy, peace, and quiet. The location offers lovely views of the Sutter Buttes, creating a serene backdrop to everyday living. This welcoming community enhances your lifestyle with two months of free rent, space rent that includes high-speed internet, and thoughtfully designed amenities that encourage connection and comfort. Residents en

Key facts

• Serene backdrop
• Move in ready
• Horseshoe pit

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FULLY FENCED DOG PARK
• HORSESHOE PIT
• COVERED PICNIC AND BBQ AREA
• SERENE BACKDROP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: 0-1 unit/acre; Lot size source: Assessor's data; Living area source: Seller; Directions: E. on Pearson, S on Sawmill towards the end of the road; Latitude/Longitude: 39.74372, -121.589729
• Financial info: Rent includes sewer
• HOA & community: Part of Idlewild association; Association fee $600 monthly; Park: Idlewild Estates; Community features: Foothills; Land lease $600 monthly (seller source); land lease applies; manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Electricity on property; Septic tank; Water connected (see remarks)
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home model: Stone Harbor; Mobile home remains on site; Entry level: 1; Has a view; Private paved road frontage
• Construction: Concrete and drywall construction; Year built: estimated; Mobile width 27 ft, length 45 ft
• Exterior features: Concrete construction; Drywall walls; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (primary suite present)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace; Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector; Double pane windows; Blinds; No interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $59k (57.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $59k (57.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Paradise Junior High (164 students, 70% FRL); Paradise Senior High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 488 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,757 (57.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.10%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,000
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -47.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1446 Toni Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	11mo	$315,000	$208	69
5352 Sawmill Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-11%)	3mo	$282,000	$220	68
5195 Bennett Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$300,000	$240	45
5587 Bieberdorf Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	22mo	$271,600	$212	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,991
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-70,414
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$600
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $58,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-458	-5% $-507	+0% $-555	+5% $-603	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-605	+0% $-555	+5% $-504	+10% $-454
Rate	-1.0pp $-485	-0.5pp $-519	base $-555	+0.5pp $-591	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1822 Arrowhead Dr Paradise, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	0.75mi
5589 Linrich Ln Paradise, CA	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,995	$1.56	46d	1	1.25mi
5995 N Libby Rd Paradise, CA	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,300	$1.32	46d	1	1.38mi
1561 Kay Ct Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	15d	1	1.44mi
1561 Kay Ct Unit D Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr
• Likely covers: internet

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    listed $145,000 Active 1252-char remark
20. 2013-10-03
    historical
21. 2013-07-11
    listed $15,000 Active
22. 2005-11-08
    historical
23. 2005-06-24
    listed $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$8,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+341.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2013-10-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-07-11 Listed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2005-11-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-06-24 Listed $31,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2018): $52 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.