59 Kit Ln · Sacramento, CA 95838

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 109 Days on market

Est $158k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers a thoughtful layout designed for comfort and privacy. The primary bedroom is a serene retreat, nestled at the back of the house, providing a tranquil escape from the hustle and bustle of daily life. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully situated in the front, offering space for family, guests, or potential office use. The side entry adds a touch of convenience, welcoming you into a cozy, well-organized living space that's perfect for modern living. Whether it's enjoying the peace of the primary suite or the functionality of this home's layout, it's a versatile and inviting space for all your needs. Call for move-in specials. Space ren

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 109 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Robla Elementary (urban): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #923 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.07%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,400
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Village Cicle	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$98,000	$68	86
194 Village Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$187,000	$130	82
152 Village Cir #152	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	79
135 Village Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$210,000	$146	76
88 Village Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$136,900	$110	73
4 Commodore Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$187,500	$130	73
81 Village Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	24mo	$212,900	$152	71
192 Village Cir #192	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+9%)	14mo	$169,000	$108	68
62 Kit Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$110,000	$82	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,359
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,353
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95838

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3720 Astoria St Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	2d	1	0.70mi
4426 Dry Creek Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,700	$1.92	2d	1	0.89mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	2d	1	0.97mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	44d	1	1.11mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	23d	1	1.12mi
3226 Pilgrim Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	2d	1	1.16mi
917 Blaine Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1558	$3,000	$1.93	2d	1	1.17mi
3231 Del Mar Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	16d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $194,900 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $3,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $5,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robla Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633240
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,481
• Composite: 31.64/100
• National rank: #11126
• State rank: #923 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,677
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1834.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 21% Asian 18% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -391.80%
• Current HPI: 415.1804
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B