2509 S Illinois Ave · Joplin, MO 64804

$249,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · Other · 84 Days on market

Built 1968 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Many updates in this lovely home- hardwoods and 2 gas fireplaces plus beamed family room & Florida room with heat & air. Huge deck.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Heated sunroom
• Gas fireplaces

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACES
• BEAMED CEILINGS
• HEATED SUNROOM
• LARGE DECK
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (freestanding); Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built with a crawl space
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Glass-enclosed porch; Front porch; Chain link fence; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-84/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joplin Schools (urban): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #231 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kelsey Norman Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 301 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Joplin Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,672 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,683
• Equity at exit: $37,268

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $19,460
• Equity at exit: $21,611

Cash invested: $69,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64804

• Rents YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $248,720

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,488
• Closing costs: $7,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2226 S Moffet Ave Joplin, MO	4.0	2.0	1818	$1,600	$0.88	21d	1	0.98mi
2528 E 15th St Joplin, MO	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,750	$1.53	21d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,950 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,950 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,950 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,950 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,950 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,950 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,950 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,950 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,950 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,950 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-05-01
    price $249,950
12. 2026-04-06
    price $255,000
13. 2026-03-18
    listed $265,000 Active
14. 2015-06-16
    soldstatus
15. 2015-06-12
    soldstatus 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Many updates in this lovely home- hardwoods and 2 gas fireplaces plus beamed family room & Florida room with heat & air. Huge deck.

16. 2014-11-11
    listed $149,900 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Many updates in this lovely home- hardwoods and 2 gas fireplaces plus beamed family room & Florida room with heat & air. Huge deck.

17. 2006-01-17
    soldstatus
18. 2005-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,001
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$7,271
• Taxable loss: −$4,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joplin Schools
• NCES district ID: 2916350
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,648
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6657
• State rank: #231 of 324 in MO

Livability — Joplin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #14578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joplin, MO
• County: Newton County · 37,016 people
• City population: 73,303
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 37,016
• Household income: $62,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1082.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.80%
• Current HPI: 279.4471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.66%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $249,950 OGAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $255,000 OGAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $265,000 OGAR
• 2015-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-12 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2014-11-11 Listed $149,900 OGAR
• 2006-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +42.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.