16 Bryant St NE · Washington, DC 20002

$489,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1920 2,334 sqft lot Est $814k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property Description – 16 Bryant Street NE, Washington, DC Short Sale Opportunity – Spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom rowhome offering 2571 square feet of living space with strong potential. The home includes three bedrooms upstairs along with a rough-in for an additional full bathroom, plus a fourth bedroom in the basement. The main level features hardwood floors, high ceilings, and a traditional DC rowhouse layout with ample natural light. The kitchen includes wood cabinetry and updated appliances. Upstairs, three well-sized bedrooms and the partially completed bathroom rough-in provide room for future customization. The basement is owner-occupied and contains a bedroom and add

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Ample natural light
• Large rear yard

Tags

• LARGE REAR YARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• WOOD CABINETRY
• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $489k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $416k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 558 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $415,721 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $814,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Cromwell Ter NE	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (-1%)	0mo	$450,000	$254	75
209 Cromwell Ter NE	0.29mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,770 (-1%)	1mo	$790,000	$446	69
223 Ascot Pl NE	0.31mi	3/3.5	1,710 (-4%)	1mo	$430,000	$251	68
41 V St NW	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,690 (-5%)	1mo	$1,200,000	$710	66
70 Adams St NW	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	0mo	$710,000	$455	65
1851 3rd St NW	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,748 (-2%)	1mo	$910,000	$521	62
120 S St NW #1	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,750 (-2%)	2mo	$810,000	$463	60
156 Todd Pl NE	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,620 (-9%)	1mo	$833,221	$514	57
11 S Street Nw Unit 1 NW	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-9%)	1mo	$716,100	$442	54
312 Bryant St NE	0.38mi	3/3.5	1,542 (-14%)	1mo	$745,000	$483	49
28 Quincy Pl NE	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-10%)	2mo	$556,000	$348	45
317 Todd Pl NE	0.53mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,008 (+12%)	1mo	$915,000	$456	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-82,230
• Equity at exit: $72,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-107,088
• Equity at exit: $42,280

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20002

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 558
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,445/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$873
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,973

Max offer price $489,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $284	+0% $146	+5% $7	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-19	+0% $146	+5% $310	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $270	base $146	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2419 N Capitol St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1763	$4,200	$2.38	25d	1	0.04mi
33 Lower Service Ct NW Washington, DC	4.0	4.5	2250	$7,950	$3.53	19d	1	0.24mi
1 V St NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.0	1800	$4,900	$2.72	13d	1	0.26mi
138 Bryant St NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,750	$2.07	21d	1	0.31mi
58 V St NW Unit A Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2150	$5,200	$2.42	20d	1	0.32mi
45 Rhode Island Ave NE Unit 1388280P Washington, DC	2.0–6.0	2.0–6.0	10398	$7,289	$0.70	0d	2	0.33mi
159 V St NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1620	$3,900	$2.41	25d	1	0.34mi
17 U St NW Unit A Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2388	$6,000	$2.51	25d	1	0.35mi
2309 3rd St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1390	$3,250	$2.34	25d	1	0.35mi
39 U St NE Washington, DC	3.0	4.0	1550	$4,695	$3.03	20d	1	0.36mi
39 U St NE #1 Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1481	$4,695	$3.17	25d	1	0.36mi
117 V St NW Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,695	$2.05	25d	1	0.36mi
32 U St NW Washington, DC	4.0	4.0	1400	$5,950	$4.25	5d	1	0.37mi
341 Bryant St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1400	$4,750	$3.39	5d	1	0.39mi
35 Todd Pl NE #2 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1323	$3,200	$2.42	25d	1	0.41mi
1917 Lincoln Rd NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	2200	$4,500	$2.05	25d	1	0.41mi
2104 4th St NE #1 Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2165	$6,150	$2.84	25d	1	0.46mi
2129 4th St NE Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2052	$4,400	$2.14	25d	1	0.47mi
15 Seaton Pl NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2539	$3,700	$1.46	25d	1	0.49mi
237 Elm St NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1484	$3,100	$2.09	25d	1	0.50mi
1814 N Capitol St NW Unit 104 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,100	$2.73	25d	1	0.51mi
1944 3rd St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2124	$4,195	$1.98	25d	1	0.55mi
13 S St NE Unit A Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	2200	$3,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.56mi
13 S St NE Unit A Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	2200	$3,800	$1.73	23d	1	0.56mi
616 Todd Pl NE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1798	$1,800	$1.00	8d	1	0.56mi
33 Randolph Pl NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	2214	$3,500	$1.58	12d	1	0.60mi
104 R St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1325	$4,395	$3.32	25d	1	0.64mi
19 R St NW Unit A Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1908	$3,900	$2.04	6d	1	0.64mi
632 Franklin St NE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1338	$3,300	$2.47	21d	1	0.65mi
1910 4th St NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	1700	$4,200	$2.47	20d	1	0.65mi
226 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2298	$4,295	$1.87	3d	1	0.65mi
145 Randolph Pl NW Unit B Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	2455	$1,950	$0.79	25d	1	0.65mi
1712 1st St NW Unit A Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	1910	$4,100	$2.15	13d	1	0.66mi
232 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	2019	$3,950	$1.96	8d	1	0.66mi
45 R St NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1656	$4,000	$2.42	8d	1	0.66mi
58 R St NW Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1806	$3,750	$2.08	25d	1	0.68mi
137 R St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	2515	$3,550	$1.41	6d	1	0.68mi
1829 5th St NW Unit 3 Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1600	$5,850	$3.66	20d	1	0.73mi
1829 5th St NW Unit 3 Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1600	$5,850	$3.66	5d	1	0.73mi
527 U St NW #689 Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	1320	$2,830	$2.14	8d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-14
   listed $489,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,445 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,445 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$4,445
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,991
• − Management: −$3,991
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable loss: −$6,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,585
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 72,397
• Household income: $120,337
• Rent vs Own: 61.7% rent · 38.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3854.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 40% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.61%
• Current HPI: 396.6033
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.04%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $489,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,445 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.