170 Ellis Rd · Chaires, FL 32317

$144,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 444 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1177 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1 acre (dimensions 208 x 208 x 208 x 208)
• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Utilities details not provided
• Home design: Single-story; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — approx. 10 x 8
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — approx. 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: End unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chaires Elementary School (math 51% / reading 60%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 479 students, 42% FRL); Swift Creek Middle School (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 772 students, 33% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,861 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1177 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,269
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $43,863
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32317

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $508	+0% $467	+5% $426	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $393	+0% $467	+5% $540	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $503	base $467	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 1177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 1176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 1175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 1174 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 1172 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 1169 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 1168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 1167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 1166 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,900 Active 1163 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 1162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 1161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 1160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 1159 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 1158 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $144,900

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

17. 2026-04-29
    price $144,900 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

18. 2025-02-27
    price $154,500 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

19. 2025-02-27
    price $154,500

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

20. 2024-11-26
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

21. 2024-11-26
    status Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

22. 2024-11-04
    historical

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

23. 2024-11-04
    historical 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

24. 2024-05-23
    price $160,500

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

25. 2024-05-23
    price $160,500 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

26. 2023-03-07
    price $173,800

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

27. 2023-03-07
    price $173,800 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

28. 2023-03-07
    price $173,800

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

29. 2022-10-19
    listed $175,300 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Nestled in a sought-after area, this one acre lot offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're looking to build your dream home, develop an investment property or create a serene retreat, this spacious parcel provides endless possibilities. Buyer is responsible for removal of structures. Information reliable but not deemed guaranteed.

30. 2022-09-16
    listed $175,300 Active
31. 2022-09-15
    listed $173,850 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $3,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$842
• After-tax cash flow: $4,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chaires

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,654
• Household income: $128,690
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 143.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.81%
• Current HPI: 246.3858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $144,900 CATRS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $144,900 CATRS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $154,500 CATRS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $154,500 CATRS
• 2024-11-26 Relisted — CATRS
• 2024-11-26 Relisted — CATRS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $160,500 CATRS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $160,500 CATRS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $173,800 CATRS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $173,800 CATRS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $173,800 CATRS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $175,300 CATRS
• 2022-09-16 Listed $175,300 CATRS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $173,850 CATRS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,312 · +44.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.