1149 Avoy Rd · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18438

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1976 2.34 ac lot $173/sqft · 45% below area Est $181k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor-friendly opportunity at 1149 Avoy Rd! This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on 2.34 acres and has already been completely gutted and reframed, giving you a blank slate to bring your vision to life. Whether you are looking for your next renovation project, rental opportunity, or a private retreat in the Poconos, this property offers plenty of potential. Convenient location with easy access to Hawley and Hamlin by way of Route 590. Make it your own and finish it exactly how you want!

Key facts

• Easy access
• Reframed
• Blank slate

Tags

• COMPLETELY GUTTED
• REFRAMED
• BLANK SLATE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.34 acres; Zoned residential; Currently used as single-family residence

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity available with 100 amp service; Electricity, water, and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Fixer condition; Vacant
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a house (residential)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shed(s) and storage; Has a view; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Flooring: See remarks for flooring details
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.5% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $100k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.32%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,806
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -44.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $44,884
• Equity at exit: $50,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $115,060
• Equity at exit: $83,489

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18438

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,497/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $455	+0% $427	+5% $399	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $371	+0% $427	+5% $483	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $452	base $427	+0.5pp $401	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $99,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $99,900 Active 490-char remark
16. 1997-05-15
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,497 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,497
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$901
• After-tax cash flow: $4,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,474

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: American 3% Polish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 325.6643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+354.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $99,900 PWMLS
• 1997-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,497 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.