627 Raymond St · New Castle, PA 16101

$45,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1923 0.29 ac lot $25/sqft · 9% above area Est $41k · 9% over ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant Occupied. Three bedroom home with two car detached garage.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1923

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Public transportation access

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 40x160; Public transportation access nearby; Resale condition

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen — approx. 10x12
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (upper level) — approx. 10x11, 10x12, 10x13
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Full basement with walk-up access; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 8.7% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.05%
• DSCR: 4.16
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,259
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 9.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Raymond St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,790 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$20	98
609 E Division St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,718 (-4%)	3mo	$60,000	$35	78
616 Allen St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-8%)	6mo	$65,000	$39	73
505 Spruce St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,564 (-13%)	0mo	$35,000	$22	69
620 Allen St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-12%)	6mo	$65,000	$41	68
901 Franklin Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,636 (-9%)	6mo	$65,000	$40	64
926 Morton St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+6%)	9mo	$14,100	$7	62
304 N Scott St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,760 (-2%)	7mo	$165,000	$94	58
105 S Mulberry	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,624 (-9%)	12mo	$53,000	$33	55
709 Brooklyn Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,570 (-12%)	4mo	$40,000	$25	52
104 N Crawford Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,558 (-13%)	8mo	$8,500	$5	52
1302 Huron Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,919 (+7%)	3mo	$130,300	$68	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $47,783
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.89×
• Total profit: $137,165
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16101

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,441/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $474

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
932 Morton St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,375	$0.95	43d	1	0.40mi
1510 Huron Ave New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1560	$1,475	$0.95	43d	1	0.88mi
503 Galbreath St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,295	$1.05	43d	1	0.90mi
1605 S Jefferson St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	1.14mi
1708 Moravia St New Castle, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   historical Contingent 59-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $45,000 Active 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (65 chars)

   Tenant Occupied. Three bedroom home with two car detached garage.

3. 2026-04-24
   historical Expired 65-char remark

   Show marketing remark (65 chars)

   Tenant Occupied. Three bedroom home with two car detached garage.

4. 2025-04-25
   listed $49,000 Active 65-char remark

   Show marketing remark (65 chars)

   Tenant Occupied. Three bedroom home with two car detached garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,441
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,113
• After-tax cash flow: $6,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• County: Lawrence County · 30,767 people
• City population: 30,767
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,767
• Household income: $51,128
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.77%
• Current HPI: 159.3091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $35,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-24 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-24 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $45,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $49,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,441 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.