23 Cape Henry Ct · Timberlake, VA 24502

$164,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1985 $157/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment potential. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, located in the Lighthouse neighborhood in Campbell County. This home is located within walking distance to Cornerstone, minutes from schools, restaurants, shopping and less than 10 minutes from Liberty University. Features include living room with laminate flooring, spacious eat in kitchen with ceramic tile, master bedroom with his/her closets and private back patio.

Key facts

• Private back patio
• $157 HOA
• Community pool

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DUAL HIS-AND-HER CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Home design: Residential condominium; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Paved parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Washer; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry closet with washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-672/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leesville Road Elementary (math 73% / reading 72%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $165k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,980 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,323
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,694
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$157
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $155,013

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-9	+0% $-56	+5% $-103	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-110	+0% $-56	+5% $-2	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-14	base $-56	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.32mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,149	$1.15	14d	14	0.37mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	44d	1	0.37mi
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,349	$1.18	14d	20	0.40mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	14d	1	0.42mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	44d	1	0.42mi
22 Apala Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,250	$1.61	14d	1	0.89mi
119 Shrader Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	725	$865	$1.19	44d	1	0.97mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.04mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit C Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.04mi
27 Odara Dr Forest, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$1,298	$1.01	14d	1	1.41mi
9 Fonda Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	44d	1	1.46mi
16 Duiguid Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $157 · $1,884/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 646-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $164,900 Active
19. 2020-06-15
    soldstatus $100,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment potential. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, located in the Lighthouse neighborhood in Campbell County. This home is located within walking distance to Cornerstone, minutes from schools, restaurants, shopping and less than 10 minutes from Liberty University. Features include living room with laminate flooring, spacious eat in kitchen with ceramic tile, master bedroom with his/her closets and private back patio.

20. 2019-09-27
    listed $107,900 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment potential. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, located in the Lighthouse neighborhood in Campbell County. This home is located within walking distance to Cornerstone, minutes from schools, restaurants, shopping and less than 10 minutes from Liberty University. Features include living room with laminate flooring, spacious eat in kitchen with ceramic tile, master bedroom with his/her closets and private back patio.

21. 2005-04-19
    soldstatus $67,000
22. 1999-05-07
    soldstatus $61,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 183.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$3,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberlake, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+168.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $164,900 LMLS
• 2020-06-15 Sold (MLS) $100,000 LMLS
• 2019-09-27 Listed $107,900 LMLS
• 2005-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.