2678 Bayberry Ct · Vineyard Lake, MI 48130

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 857 sqft · Other · 29 Days on market

Built 2013

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to lake life at Hillanlake Village! This well-maintained 2013 Mojave manufactured home offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and waterfront living on beautiful Vineyard Lake in the heart of the Irish Hills. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and approximately 857 square feet, this move-in ready home includes an open-concept layout, spacious living room, and an eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday living or weekend getaways. Step outside and enjoy your private dock with direct access to Vineyard Lake — perfect for boating, fishing, kayaking, or relaxing by the water. The large deck creates the ideal outdoor entertaining space with peaceful lake views. Additi

Key facts

• Large deck
• Private dock
• Peaceful lake views

Tags

• PRIVATE DOCK
• LARGE DECK
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING SPACE
• PEACEFUL LAKE VIEWS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Hillanlake Village lot 10 (VIN/Serial provided in records)
• Financial info: Monthly lot/rent amount listed as $850
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Dogs allowed; Cats allowed; Trash removal paid by association/landlord

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (manufactured after 1976); Located in an MH park (Hillanlake Village); Built in 2013; Listed as Other/See Remarks style
• Construction: Piers foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Storm windows/screens; All-sports lake access (Vineyard Lake); Base lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level (each about 10 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Eat-in kitchen; Master bedroom with private bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 2.1% in Vineyard Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#493 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia School District (town): math 30% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #194 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.41%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $57,468
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $136,430
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48130

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,072	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,032	+10% $1,011
Rent	-10% $906	-5% $979	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,198
Rate	-1.0pp $1,082	-0.5pp $1,067	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,037	+1.0pp $1,021

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $12,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,982
• After-tax cash flow: $9,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 2606990
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,099
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #4941
• State rank: #194 of 540 in MI

Livability — Vineyard Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #14492

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vineyard Lake, MI
• City population: 10,259
• Population (ZIP): 16,849

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.65%
• Current HPI: 185.4179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $69,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+41.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $19 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.