5890 E Highway 20 #9 · Lucerne, CA 95458

$42,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $30k · 42% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Adorable and cozy 1971 single wide in the Lorraine Village Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park in Lucerne Ca. 720 sq ft of living space offers 2-Bedrooms, 2-Bathrooms. Fairly large primary Bedroom and is next to the Full Bath with shower and tub. Natural light fills the cozy Living Room with a ceiling fan and a new mini split. Freshly painted kitchen with new refrigerator, electric cooktop stove, and new microwave. This is a solid mobile home that has been redone with new Floor coverings in all the rooms. New double-pane windows and screens except for the bedrooms, new foam insulation (foam sheets) in all outer walls, replaced some sub-flooring, and new sheetrock on front room interior walls. New f

Key facts

• Natural light
• New refrigerator
• New floor coverings

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• FRESHLY PAINTED KITCHEN
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• ELECTRIC COOKTOP STOVE
• NEW MICROWAVE
• NEW FLOOR COVERINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: flat lot; Elevation measured in feet; Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 60'
• Financial info: Land lease: $585 per month
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Park name: Lorraine Village; Community features: biking, hiking, fishing, lake; Manager approval required; Pets: contact management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public/district water connected; Private sewer (sewer connected); Utilities connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (Model: BLAIR HOUSE); Mobile home remains on site; One story; Entry level: 1; Has a view
• Construction: Roll roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with pier jacks; Turnkey condition
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Yard; Wood fencing; Storage shed on property; No pool; Steel skirt

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric stove
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower-in-tub; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating (see remarks); Cooling (see remarks)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Blinds; Window screens; Front door entry; One-level living; Carbon monoxide detector(s); 24-hour security; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.9% vs local median 3.4% in Lucerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#656 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Lucerne Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,228 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $471 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,220 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.60%
• DSCR: 4.59
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $29,520
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5890 Hwy 20 #25	0.02mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	14mo	$27,000	$38	86
6272 4th Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	10mo	$48,000	$67	68
5890 E Hwy 20 #22	0.04mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	22mo	$32,500	$41	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $46,932
• Equity at exit: $9,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.26×
• Total profit: $108,911
• Equity at exit: $10,179

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95458

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $42,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $42,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-03-22
    price $42,000
18. 2026-02-24
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $9,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $7,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0623040
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 21.37/100
• National rank: #13649
• State rank: #1228 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #20362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,365

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.12%
• Current HPI: 194.4298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $42,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $49,000 CRMLS