113 Oak Dr · Barryville, NY 18458

$281,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $317k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Interior Bedrooms: 3 Primary Bedroom Dimensions: 12.9 X 12.5 Bedroom 2 Dimensions: 11.3 X 9.3 Bedroom 3 Dimensions: 10.5 X 11.3 Other Rooms Total Rooms: 6 Bathroom 2, Primary Bathroom, Primary Bedroom, Living Room, Laundry, Kitchen, Dining Room, Bedroom 3, Bedroom 2 Primary Bathroom: 12 X 6 Living Room Dimensions: 14 X 18 Bathrooms Total Bathrooms: 3 Full Bathrooms: 2 1/2 Bathrooms: 1 Bathroom 2 Dimensions: 6 X 12 Appliances Dishwasher Refrigerator Range Oven Heating: Propane hot water Fireplace Features: Gas Heating Features: Propane baseboard Number Of Fireplaces: 1 Kitchen and Dining Dining Room Dimensions: 11 X 12 Kitchen Dimensions: 12 X 14 Interior Features

Key facts

• Built 2006
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Barryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $79k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $196k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $249,500 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,376
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Iroquois Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	5mo	$315,000	$234	81
146 Mohawk Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+2%)	13mo	$315,000	$225	73
141 Cahoonzie Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+9%)	6mo	$339,000	$227	65
150 Cree Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	2mo	$355,000	$264	65
142 Onandaga Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	16mo	$309,900	$231	54
115 Lake Shore Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-12%)	17mo	$299,900	$248	50
136 Maple Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	13mo	$324,000	$270	48
136 Cree Rd	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+15%)	0mo	$364,000	$232	44
144 Onandaga Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+12%)	11mo	$342,500	$224	44
163 Erie Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+13%)	7mo	$425,000	$274	38
654 Twin Lakes Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,512 (+10%)	16mo	$330,000	$218	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $156,249
• Equity at exit: $253,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $457,888
• Equity at exit: $546,893

Cash invested: $78,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,982/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $281,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,375
• Closing costs: $8,445
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Cree Rd Shohola, PA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,495	$1.86	1d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $281,500 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,500 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,500 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $281,500 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,500 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,500 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $281,500 1669-char remark
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $290,000 Active 1669-char remark
16. 2025-08-27
    price $269,000
17. 2025-08-26
    status Active
18. 2025-08-15
    status Pending
19. 2025-08-01
    price $274,000
20. 2025-07-22
    price $284,000
21. 2025-07-09
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2011-05-09
    soldstatus $195,600
23. 2006-12-05
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,370 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,768
• − Property taxes: −$3,982
• − Insurance: −$1,408
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$8,189
• Taxable loss: −$4,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $1,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Barryville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1179.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $281,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $290,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $269,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-26 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-08-15 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $274,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $284,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2011-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $195,600 Public Records
• 2006-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,982 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.