505 County Route 12 · Middletown, NY 10958

$450,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1987 9.00 ac lot $279/sqft · 18% below area Est $552k · 18% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some properties offer land. Others offer convenience. 505 County Route 12 gives you both, with 9 beautiful acres, a spacious raised ranch layout, and a location in the sought after Minisink Valley School District. From the moment you arrive, the pond out front creates a memorable first impression and sets the tone for the peaceful lifestyle this property offers. Inside, the home offers the generous footprint and versatility that make a raised ranch so appealing. The main level provides comfortable everyday living with plenty of space to spread out, while the partially finished lower level adds even more flexibility. With its own private entrance, this lower level opens the door to valuable hidden potential, whether for an in-law suite, mother-daughter style setup, a home office, home gym, dream family room, or possible passive income opportunity. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The 9-acre setting gives you room to roam, entertain, garden, explore, or simply enjoy the peace and privacy of a country backdrop. The pond adds charm and character, creating a setting that feels both memorable and welcoming. It is a property that offers not just land, but a lifestyle. The location only adds to the appeal. Close enough to be convenient and far enough to feel like country, you are within easy reach of local highways, shopping, farmstands, dining, and entertainment, while still coming home to space, quiet, and the kind of setting that feels like an escape from the everyday. For the buyer who has been waiting for acreage, a spacious home, and real flexibility in Minisink Valley Schools, this is the kind of property that is hard to duplicate. Whether your vision is multi generational living, extra room to grow, or simply enjoying the balance of privacy and convenience, 505 County Route 12 is a place where that next chapter can take shape beautifully.

Key facts

• 9 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-707 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,182 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $551,519
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -18.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 County Route 93	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	2mo	$420,000	$273	64
545 County Route 12	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+11%)	10mo	$450,000	$251	62
97 Carter Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,572 (-3%)	21mo	$500,000	$318	61
619 County Route 12	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,750 (+8%)	23mo	$475,000	$271	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $200,255
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $625,456
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10958

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$711 /mo · $8,528/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,194

Max offer price $325,182

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 County Route 93 New Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2016	$3,300	$1.64	14d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $450,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   status Active 1892-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1892 chars)

   Some properties offer land. Others offer convenience. 505 County Route 12 gives you both, with 9 beautiful acres, a spacious raised ranch layout, and a location in the sought after Minisink Valley School District. From the moment you arrive, the pond out front creates a memorable first impression and sets the tone for the peaceful lifestyle this property offers. Inside, the home offers the generous footprint and versatility that make a raised ranch so appealing. The main level provides comfortable everyday living with plenty of space to spread out, while the partially finished lower level adds even more flexibility. With its own private entrance, this lower level opens the door to valuable hidden potential, whether for an in-law suite, mother-daughter style setup, a home office, home gym, dream family room, or possible passive income opportunity. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The 9-acre setting gives you room to roam, entertain, garden, explore, or simply enjoy the peace and privacy of a country backdrop. The pond adds charm and character, creating a setting that feels both memorable and welcoming. It is a property that offers not just land, but a lifestyle. The location only adds to the appeal. Close enough to be convenient and far enough to feel like country, you are within easy reach of local highways, shopping, farmstands, dining, and entertainment, while still coming home to space, quiet, and the kind of setting that feels like an escape from the everyday. For the buyer who has been waiting for acreage, a spacious home, and real flexibility in Minisink Valley Schools, this is the kind of property that is hard to duplicate. Whether your vision is multi generational living, extra room to grow, or simply enjoying the balance of privacy and convenience, 505 County Route 12 is a place where that next chapter can take shape beautifully.

3. 2026-04-02
   historical $450,000 1892-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1892 chars)

   Some properties offer land. Others offer convenience. 505 County Route 12 gives you both, with 9 beautiful acres, a spacious raised ranch layout, and a location in the sought after Minisink Valley School District. From the moment you arrive, the pond out front creates a memorable first impression and sets the tone for the peaceful lifestyle this property offers. Inside, the home offers the generous footprint and versatility that make a raised ranch so appealing. The main level provides comfortable everyday living with plenty of space to spread out, while the partially finished lower level adds even more flexibility. With its own private entrance, this lower level opens the door to valuable hidden potential, whether for an in-law suite, mother-daughter style setup, a home office, home gym, dream family room, or possible passive income opportunity. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The 9-acre setting gives you room to roam, entertain, garden, explore, or simply enjoy the peace and privacy of a country backdrop. The pond adds charm and character, creating a setting that feels both memorable and welcoming. It is a property that offers not just land, but a lifestyle. The location only adds to the appeal. Close enough to be convenient and far enough to feel like country, you are within easy reach of local highways, shopping, farmstands, dining, and entertainment, while still coming home to space, quiet, and the kind of setting that feels like an escape from the everyday. For the buyer who has been waiting for acreage, a spacious home, and real flexibility in Minisink Valley Schools, this is the kind of property that is hard to duplicate. Whether your vision is multi generational living, extra room to grow, or simply enjoying the balance of privacy and convenience, 505 County Route 12 is a place where that next chapter can take shape beautifully.

4. 2026-01-06
   price $499,999
5. 2025-11-12
   listed $525,000 Active
6. 2025-11-08
   price $525,000
7. 2025-11-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,528 · $711/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,528 · $711/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$8,528
• − Insurance: −$2,916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$16,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minisink Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,292
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1897
• State rank: #254 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 68,033
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.58%
• Current HPI: 294.1542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,528 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.