2626 Shiner Dr · Dundee, FL 33898

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1992 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential at 2626 Shine Dr in Lake Wales! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home sits in a quiet, rural setting and is ready for a full transformation. The home requires extensive renovations throughout, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a customized space from the ground up. With a spacious floor plan and a generous lot, this property offers a solid foundation for your vision. Bring your crew, your creativity, and restore this fixer-upper into a great home or profitable investment.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Quiet rural setting
• Spacious floor plan

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATIONS
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 100; Lot size approximately 0.16 acres; Listing unfurnished; Living area about 1,196 (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA association; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a 192 make (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Chain link fencing; Paved lot/driveway; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; No cooling specified
• Interior features: No interior features specified
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bartow Elementary Academy (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 518 students, 31% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.97%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $28,377
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $82,251
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $756	-5% $728	+0% $699	+5% $671	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $557	-5% $628	+0% $699	+5% $770	+10% $842
Rate	-1.0pp $750	-0.5pp $725	base $699	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5954 Skokie Rd Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.5	925	$1,400	$1.51	20d	1	1.11mi
2694 Chuck Wagon Way Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	15d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2025-12-08
    listed $100,000 Active
15. 2020-08-19
    soldstatus $20,000
16. 2007-03-05
    historical
17. 2006-11-09
    listed $72,000
18. 1993-11-29
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $6,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+640.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-09 Listed $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.