9220 Duggar Rd · Woodville, FL 32305

$147,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $173k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Foreclosure. This price has been approved by lender. Needs some TLC. No Seller's Property Disclosures. Sold as is. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. Large screened in patio and fenced back yard. Also has a carport as well as a shed.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Covered patio
• Rural area

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• COVERED PATIO
• RURAL AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.3% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $148k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,463 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1906 Cemetery Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	0mo	$153,000	$116	73
2277 E Oak Ridge Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	5mo	$160,000	$139	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,362
• Equity at exit: $22,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $27,803
• Equity at exit: $12,788

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32305

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $926/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $147,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $147,900 Active
17. 2020-03-03
    soldstatus $69,500
18. 2011-01-19
    soldstatus $25,000 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Foreclosure. This price has been approved by lender. Needs some TLC. No Seller's Property Disclosures. Sold as is. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. Large screened in patio and fenced back yard. Also has a carport as well as a shed.

19. 2010-12-15
    listed $34,900 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Foreclosure. This price has been approved by lender. Needs some TLC. No Seller's Property Disclosures. Sold as is. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. Large screened in patio and fenced back yard. Also has a carport as well as a shed.

20. 2000-08-22
    soldstatus $58,400
21. 1997-10-23
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$926
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable income: $1,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,384
• Household income: $48,045
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 654.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 218.4834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+491.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $147,900 FSBO.com
• 2020-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2011-01-19 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CATRS
• 2010-12-15 Listed $34,900 CATRS
• 2000-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,400 Public Records
• 1997-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $926 · +35.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.