8176 Nube Medina · Macdona, TX 78252

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 3,136 sqft lot $160/sqft · 5% below area Est $209k · 5% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A single-story home that features an open living area with a kitchenette and a full bathroom in the back of the home. Beside it is the bedroom with ample space to relax, complete with a full-sized closet. Estimated COE Jan 2023. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 3,136 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: For sale — possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Currently being leased (lease expires March 1, 2027); Down payment resource not available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $250 annually; Association transfer fee $200; Subdivision: MEDINA LANDING

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Built by Lennar
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 4 years old
• Exterior features: Pool (community); Park/playground (community); Jogging trails (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Self-cleaning oven; Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (16 x 13); Bedroom 2 (10 x 9); Bedroom 3 (10 x 9); All bedrooms downstairs
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (4 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Living/Dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen; Some window coverings remain; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Macdona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,409 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southwest El (math 38% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 654 students, 73% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 558 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-4 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,476 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,976
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -5.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8124 Nube Medina	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,235 (0%)	6mo	$227,000	$184	91
8244 Smithers Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+3%)	3mo	$240,430	$188	79
7945 Coffee Ml	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+9%)	13mo	$294,990	$220	69
13922 Pinkston	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-2%)	7mo	$219,000	$180	60
10306 Dunlap	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,197 (-3%)	13mo	$211,499	$177	52
10626 Brady Creek Cp	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-2%)	20mo	$247,830	$206	44
7421 Playa Xing	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	12mo	$234,330	$166	36
7433 Playa Xing	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	21mo	$279,390	$198	30
7420 Playa Xing	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	22mo	$293,590	$209	27
10643 Mexia Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	22mo	$274,590	$195	25
10614 Brady Creek Cp	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+14%)	24mo	$287,690	$204	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,511
• Equity at exit: $57,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,066
• Equity at exit: $69,074

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78252

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 558
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,807/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $158,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-167	+0% $-223	+5% $-279	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-285	+0% $-223	+5% $-161	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-173	base $-223	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7149 Magnolia Pass Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,395	$1.10	5d	1	0.39mi
7158 Magnolia Pass Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,395	$1.26	45d	1	0.39mi
7153 Magnolia Pass Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,440	$1.09	18d	1	0.39mi
7153 Magnolia Pass Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,440	$1.09	18d	1	0.39mi
7158 Magnolia Pass Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,395	$1.26	45d	1	0.39mi
7162 Magnolia Pass Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,450	$1.15	25d	1	0.39mi
7162 Magnolia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,349	$1.07	25d	1	0.39mi
7122 Magnolia Pass San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	5d	1	0.53mi
7162 Magnolia Pass Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1109	$1,395	$1.26	21d	1	0.71mi
7162 Magnolia Pass Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,349	$1.07	18d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $198,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $198,000 New 435-char remark
16. 2023-04-04
    soldstatus Sold 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    A single-story home that features an open living area with a kitchenette and a full bathroom in the back of the home. Beside it is the bedroom with ample space to relax, complete with a full-sized closet. Estimated COE Jan 2023. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2023-01-15
    status Pending 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    A single-story home that features an open living area with a kitchenette and a full bathroom in the back of the home. Beside it is the bedroom with ample space to relax, complete with a full-sized closet. Estimated COE Jan 2023. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2022-12-23
    price $197,999 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    A single-story home that features an open living area with a kitchenette and a full bathroom in the back of the home. Beside it is the bedroom with ample space to relax, complete with a full-sized closet. Estimated COE Jan 2023. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2022-12-02
    listed $205,499 New 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    A single-story home that features an open living area with a kitchenette and a full bathroom in the back of the home. Beside it is the bedroom with ample space to relax, complete with a full-sized closet. Estimated COE Jan 2023. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,807 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,807 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,807
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$6,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This single-story home in Medina Landing requires moderate renovations, including painting, updating the bathroom, and replacing countertops, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — There are some minor scuffs and marks on the interior walls.
• Moderate Bathroom Update — The bathroom appears dated and could benefit from an update to increase its value.
• Minor Kitchen Countertops — The countertops are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home appear more inviting and increase its value.
• Both Update the bathroom fixtures — A modern bathroom can significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Replace the countertops — Modern countertops can enhance the kitchen's appearance and functionality, boosting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · There are some minor scuffs and marks on the interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom Update · The bathroom appears dated and could benefit from an update to increase its value.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen Countertops · The countertops are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home appear more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the bathroom fixtures — A modern bathroom can significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace the countertops — Modern countertops can enhance the kitchen's appearance and functionality, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — Macdona

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1409
• US rank: #24127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,790
• Household income: $85,518
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 29% White 17% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.00%
• Current HPI: 183.6413
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $198,000 LERA
• 2023-04-04 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-01-15 Pending — LERA
• 2022-12-23 Price Changed $197,999 LERA
• 2022-12-02 Listed $205,499 LERA

Property tax history

+75.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,807 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.