909 Solana Rd · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1960

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and cozy 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers comfort, functionality, and a backyard retreat you'll love. The home features a 1-car garage and a warm, inviting layout perfect for everyday living. Step outside to your own private oasis where you can relax under the covered patio and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. The beautifully maintained backyard includes a tranquil pond, a mature peach tree, and two storage sheds, providing plenty of space for gardening tools, hobbies, and extra storage. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee on the patio or harvesting fresh peaches from your own tree, this delightful property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor s

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Covered patio
• Backyard retreat

Tags

• BACKYARD RETREAT
• PRIVATE OASIS
• COVERED PATIO
• TRANQUIL POND
• MATURE PEACH TREE
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax noted
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener; 1 covered parking space (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Slab foundation; Built with shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fenced yard with block fencing; Shingle roof; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range hood; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($772/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Elementary (356 students, 32% FRL); Carlsbad Intermediate School - Pr Leyva Campus (817 students, 27% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,919 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,289
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,183
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $129	+0% $64	+5% $-1	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-7	+0% $64	+5% $135	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $123	base $64	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 N Lake St Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	45d	1	0.99mi
601 W Orchard Ln Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	45d	2	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,179/yr (+$98/mo · 178.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $230,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.